Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed as Gulf revenues squeeze Iraq and Egypt

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South Sudan sits at the top of the global scale (composite 99.9) after fresh clashes between SPLA-IO and government forces across several states on 9 August; the US condemned the fighting and civilian casualties on 7 August, and Uganda began training South Sudanese forces on 8 August as relations between President Kiir and Riek Machar worsened. The full picture across all 35 monitored countries is on the Global Risk page.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on 9 August that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Washington meets every Iranian condition, and the Supreme National Security Council added demands for a US withdrawal and compensation; Iran and Oman moved closer the same week to a framework on new shipping lanes.
Russia mounted one of its heaviest bombardments of 2026 overnight on 9 August, killing 13 people and injuring 90 across Ukrainian cities and damaging the Odesa seaport; strikes on 8 August killed four in the Kyiv region.
Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the US-backed Gaza peace plan on 9 August and reaffirmed opposition to Palestinian statehood, five days after the UN warned on 4 August of catastrophic living conditions and famine risk in Gaza.

Watch list — 48h

Rank	Country	Composite	RAG	Δ 48h	Lead judgement
1	South Sudan²	99.9	RED	+0.3	SPLA-IO and government forces clash across several states; US condemns civilian casualties (9 Aug)
2	Somalia²	98.4	RED	−0.1	Mohamud declares a "final offensive" against Al-Shabaab as a US funding cut hits the AU mission (8–9 Aug)
3	DR Congo²	97.3	RED	+0.1	Ebola cases pass 4,000; the constitutional court clears a path to a Tshisekedi third term (6–7 Aug)
4	Myanmar²	96.9	RED	+0.3	Junta rejects an ASEAN call to free Aung San Suu Kyi; Min Aung Hlaing courts Thailand (7–9 Aug)
5	Venezuela²	96.4	RED	+0.6	Earthquake toll passes 6,000; Caracas withdraws from the ICC Rome Statute (3–7 Aug)
6	Syria²	93.5	RED	+0.5	Damascus and Moscow agree the future of Russian bases; forces reinforce the Iraqi border (5–9 Aug)
7	Iran²	93.2	RED	−0.1	IRGC says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until the US meets all conditions (9 Aug)
8	Mali²	91.5	RED	−0.5	Army strikes JNIM across the north as the group claims 36 attacks in July (5–7 Aug)
9	Chad²	90.6	RED	−0.9	5,000 troops deployed to the CAR border; delayed rains deepen food insecurity (4 Aug)
10	Palestinian Territories²	90.5	RED	+0.7	Netanyahu rejects the US peace plan; UN warns of famine in Gaza (4–9 Aug)

² Also holding at the top of the severity range across several dimensions: South Sudan, Somalia, DR Congo, Myanmar, Venezuela, Syria, Iran, Mali, Chad and the Palestinian Territories.

Largest deteriorations over 48 hours: Nepal (+2.2), Turks and Caicos (+2.1), Ukraine (+1.3) and Iraq (+1.1). Largest improvements: Azerbaijan (−2.0), Guyana (−1.9), Georgia (−1.9) and Taiwan (−1.5).

Iran's IRGC declared on 9 August that the Strait of Hormuz would stay shut until Washington met every Iranian condition, and the Supreme National Security Council demanded a US withdrawal and compensation as the price of reopening. Tehran and Muscat moved closer to a framework on new shipping lanes over the same week. The disruption to Gulf traffic is feeding through to oil-dependent budgets across the region.

Iraq acknowledged a serious financial shortfall on 8 August and delayed July public-sector salaries, turning to bank borrowing to cover August pay; falling oil revenue pushed its macro risk to RED from AMBER (8 Aug).
Egypt's Suez Canal revenues fell 23.4% year on year, and July inflation was expected to accelerate to 15.6% (6 Aug).
Iran and Oman were reported close to agreement on new Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, with oil prices swinging on the talks (8–9 Aug, A2/B2 dual-source).

Netanyahu rejects the US Gaza plan as famine warnings mount and strikes hit south Lebanon

Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the US-backed Gaza peace plan on 9 August, insisting Israel would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms and reaffirming opposition to Palestinian statehood. Israeli ministers had already rejected a two-week truce on 7 August despite US pressure. The humanitarian position in Gaza continued to deteriorate alongside the diplomatic deadlock.

The UN warned on 4 August of catastrophic living conditions and famine risk in Gaza; Gaza fuel prices had spiked to 60 shekels a litre on 31 July, threatening essential services (4 Aug, B1).
Israel ramped up strikes in south Lebanon on 8 August and, on 9 August, Lebanese authorities reported troops infiltrating a Lebanese Army-held village; Lebanon and Israel separately agreed on observer nations to verify Hezbollah disarmament (8–9 Aug).
Egypt's Foreign Minister urged full implementation of the Gaza roadmap and an Israeli withdrawal on 9 August; a tender for 627 new settlement housing units in Ramallah and Al-Bireh was issued on 6 August.

Russia widens its strike campaign against Ukraine and its neighbours

Russia intensified its overnight bombardment of Ukrainian cities on 9 August, killing 13 people and injuring 90, with the Odesa seaport taking damage from one of the heaviest barrages of 2026. Strikes on 8 August killed four in the Kyiv region. The campaign is reaching beyond Ukraine's borders and drawing in third-country supply lines.

Fragments of a Russian drone were found in Moldova's Ștefan Vodă district on 9 August, with diesel stocks reported critically low and salary increases postponed (7–9 Aug).
North Korea fired a ballistic missile on 6 August, and on 8 August President Zelenskyy warned of a North Korean troop surge to Russia while seeking South Korean air-defence assistance.
US stockpile priorities clashed with Ukraine's air-defence needs as envoys Witkoff and Kushner planned visits to Kyiv and Moscow (9 Aug).

Jihadist violence spans the Sahel and Lake Chad as armies go on the offensive

Malian armed forces conducted targeted air strikes against JNIM and allied fighters in Boulekessi, Kidal and Tessalit on 7 August, after the group claimed 36 attacks across Mali during July (reported 5 August). Security forces across the wider region moved onto the offensive as militant pressure held.

Nigeria's DSS warned on 6 August of planned attacks in Adamawa and Borno states and, on 7 August, of Boko Haram operations; troops repelled an assault in Zamfara and the government announced new army divisions and the rescue of 308 abductees (6–7 Aug).
Chad deployed 5,000 troops to its border with the Central African Republic on 4 August, as a delayed rainy season worsened food insecurity in the east (4 Aug).
Niger reported persistent insecurity and falling incomes on 6 August; a bus crash on the RN1 killed 22 people on 7 August.

Country daily updates

Sub Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 99.9 RED², Δ +0.3. Clashes between SPLA-IO and SSPDF forces produced casualties across several states on 9 August. The US condemned the conflict and civilian casualties on 7 August and criticised restrictions on UNMISS operations. Uganda began training South Sudanese forces on 8 August amid worsening relations between President Kiir and Riek Machar. The UN and the ceasefire monitor RJMEC warned that the country is unprepared for December elections and that security delays threaten the polls.

Somalia — 98.4 RED², Δ −0.1. President Mohamud announced a "final offensive" against Al-Shabaab on 9 August. On 8 August Somalia faced a rethink of an early troop exit after a US funding cut hit the African Union mission, and NISA arrested nine suspected Al-Shabaab members in Mogadishu. Somaliland's president again urged international partners to engage it as a sovereign state on 8 August. The WFP reported significant erosion of purchasing power and high food-basket costs through July.

DR Congo — 97.3 RED², Δ +0.1. The Ebola outbreak reached over 4,000 cases and 1,850 deaths by 6 August, and the WHO Director-General visited the country as the outbreak accelerated. On 7 August the Constitutional Court approved a referendum law, opening the door for President Tshisekedi to seek a third term, following 2 August reports of plans to rewrite the constitution and extend his rule beyond 2028. Fifteen detainees were transferred to AFC/M23 in Beni on 7 August. Insecurity, road closures and telecom outages continued to hinder aid in South Kivu.

Mali — 91.5 RED², Δ −0.5. Malian forces carried out targeted air strikes against JNIM and allied fighters in Boulekessi, Kidal and Tessalit on 7 August, after the group claimed 36 attacks across Mali in July (reported 5 August). A child was killed by a grenade explosion in Gao on 6 August. The cabinet adopted an anti-begging strategy and fiscal reforms on 7 August, and Prime Minister Maïga reviewed the five-year transition on 9 August.

Chad — 90.6 RED², Δ −0.9. Chad deployed 5,000 troops to its border with the Central African Republic on 4 August, and a delayed rainy season worsened food insecurity in the east. France transferred its second military base, at Abeche, to Chadian authorities on 5 August. Local reports on 7 August alleged that Mahamat Kaka hosted a Nigerian rebel leader in N'Djamena. Chad also announced plans on 5 August to open its electricity sector to private operators.

Ethiopia — 90.4 RED, Δ +0.9. El Niño-driven rainfall deficits hit Ethiopia's meher harvest, worsening food insecurity (7 August). The Addis Standard editor was abducted and the newsroom raided on 6 August amid a media crackdown. Hundreds fled western Tigray after clashes erupted on 3 August, with Ethiopian and Tigray authorities trading blame as fears of renewed war grew. The birr weakened against the dollar to 161.36 on 6 August.

Niger — 90.2 RED, Δ +0.1. A bus crash on the RN1 killed 22 people and injured dozens on 7 August, and the Transport Minister addressed the toll of road accidents on 9 August. AES states expressed regret on 7 August over Nigerian President Tinubu's comments on regional security. Niger held its fuel price at 499 CFA francs on 8 August, and 6 August reporting pointed to persistent crisis conditions driven by insecurity and falling incomes.

Nigeria — 90.1 RED, Δ +0.1. The DSS warned of planned attacks in Adamawa and Borno states on 6 August and of Boko Haram operations on 7 August, when troops repelled a terrorist assault in Zamfara. President Tinubu announced new army divisions, approved a military salary rise and reported the rescue of 308 abducted Nigerians in Kwara and Niger states. The US updated its Nigeria travel advisory on 4 August over terrorism, crime and kidnapping.

Cameroon — 89.8 RED, Δ +0.2. President Biya's absence exceeded two months as of 7 August, drawing public concern and criticism that the ruling party rebuffed the same day. On 6 August Biya appointed new generals and reshuffled the military command. Opposition supporters were arrested in Yaoundé on 4 August during electoral appeals, and a cholera outbreak worsened in the Far North region.

Eritrea — 88.3 RED, Δ −1.4. Eritrea called on 8 August for a Red Sea security architecture based on sovereignty. Somalia and Eritrea established diplomatic ties on 5 August, following deeper US engagement with both on 30 July. Asmara reported growing water shortages from 31 July, while the nakfa held steady against the dollar on 7 August.

Middle East and North Africa

Syria — 93.5 RED², Δ +0.5. Syria and Russia agreed on the future of Russian military bases on 9 August. DP World signed an $800 million memorandum to redevelop Tartus Port on 6 August. The Syrian military raised its alert level and deployed forces near the Iraqi border on 5 August. Damascus agreed on 4 August to cut Russian oil imports in return for US sanctions relief, and the WFP warned on 31 July of deteriorating food access under macroeconomic stress.

Iran — 93.2 RED², Δ −0.1. The IRGC stated on 9 August that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen without the US meeting all Iranian conditions, and the Supreme National Security Council demanded a US withdrawal and compensation. Iran and Oman moved closer to an agreement on new Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes over the same period. The rial fluctuated against the dollar through 5 August as the standoff continued.

Palestinian Territories — 90.5 RED², Δ +0.7. Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected a Gaza peace plan on 9 August and reaffirmed opposition to Palestinian statehood. The UN warned on 4 August of catastrophic living conditions and famine risk in Gaza, where fuel prices had spiked to 60 shekels a litre on 31 July. Israeli ministers rejected a two-week truce on 7 August despite US pressure, and Israeli forces withdrew from a refugee camp the same day after a two-day operation. A tender for 627 new settlement housing units in Ramallah and Al-Bireh was issued on 6 August.

Libya — 90.3 RED, Δ +0.1. Haftar asserted the army's political role on 10 August, while Presidential Council head Menfi and Prime Minister Dbeibah called for a unified military. Political institutions had agreed on 30 July a roadmap for elections by February 2027. A rights group called on 2 August for the prosecution of armed-group commanders after an abuse report. Q1 2026 fiscal data released on 2 August showed 97.5% reliance on oil revenue.

Lebanon — 87.3 RED, Δ −0.4. Israel ramped up strikes in south Lebanon on 8 August, and on 9 August Lebanese authorities reported troops infiltrating a Lebanese Army-held village; the Israeli army claimed the destruction of a Hezbollah tunnel. A Lebanese soldier was wounded in an Israeli drone strike in Mansouri on 7 August. Lebanon and Israel agreed on countries to verify Hezbollah disarmament but Beirut threatened to suspend direct negotiations.

Iraq — 85.9 RED, Δ +1.1. The government acknowledged a serious financial shortfall on 8 August and delayed July salaries, turning to bank borrowing to cover August pay as oil revenue fell; macro risk moved to RED from AMBER. Prime Minister Zaidi discussed regional tensions and the coalition withdrawal with President Macron. Iraqi resistance groups postponed retaliation against the US and Saudi Arabia on 7 August after mediation, and Baghdad warned militias of terrorism charges.

Egypt — 78.5 RED, Δ −1.0. The Foreign Minister urged full implementation of the Gaza roadmap and an Israeli withdrawal on 9 August. Suez Canal revenues fell 23.4% year on year, and July inflation was expected to accelerate to 15.6% (6 August). The US Embassy in Cairo issued a Middle East security alert on 1 August, and Egypt urged Washington on 2 August to contain the widening conflict.

Israel — 55.5 AMBER (severe on security), Δ −0.2. Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the US-backed Gaza peace plan on 9 August, insisting Israel would not retreat until Hamas fully disarms, a break with Washington that risks further friction. The Knesset dissolved on 30 July, setting elections for 27 October. The IDF expanded its probe into a deadly Lebanon explosion on 5 August.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 96.4 RED², Δ +0.6. The June earthquake death toll passed 6,000 on 3 August, with 5 August reporting detailing the humanitarian aftermath. Venezuela formally withdrew from the ICC Rome Statute on 7 August, having deposited the withdrawal on 6 August. On 8 August the government and an opposition faction opened US-backed talks to overhaul the electoral and judicial authorities, and new electricity authorities were appointed. Venezuelans faced intensifying blackouts and increased power rationing on 6 August, days after Maduro promised on 4 August to end rationing.

Guyana — 65.8 AMBER (severe on security and operating conditions), Δ −1.9. ExxonMobil confirmed on 7 August that it had recovered all investments in the Stabroek Block, entitling Guyana to 50% profit oil. The same day Guyana increased border-defence measures amid tensions with Venezuela, and the Chief of Defence Staff set out military strategy. The Guyana Development Bank launched on 8 August with US$200 million for small businesses, and the US invested in the bauxite sector to reduce reliance on China.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 96.9 RED², Δ +0.3. Myanmar rejected an ASEAN call to release Aung San Suu Kyi on 9 August and questioned the role of its envoy. Protests on 8 August marked the 38th anniversary of the 8-8-88 uprising. A junta air strike killed a displaced civilian in Karenni State on 7 August, and a conflict monitor warned on 27 July that the military had escalated civilian killings. Min Aung Hlaing visited Thailand on 6–7 August seeking diplomatic re-engagement.

Pakistan — 87.9 RED, Δ −1.0. July was the deadliest month for security forces in 2026, with 205 killed, according to a 7 August report. Protests erupted nationwide on 8 August over soaring fuel prices. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a joint defence pact on 7 August, the same day the UK updated its Pakistan travel advisory and elections in Poonch and Palandri were postponed over security concerns.

Bangladesh — 84.4 RED, Δ −1.1. Diplomatic tensions with India rose on 10 August, and the Border Guard thwarted several Indian push-in attempts along the border on 6 August. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina set out conditions for her return on 9 August. The presidential election was scheduled for 20 August (set 6 August).

Nepal — 78.2 RED², Δ +2.2 (largest 48h composite mover). Monsoon landslides cut off major highways across Nepal on 8 August, worsening operating conditions. The national identity system suffered extensive technical failures on 3 August. A money-laundering probe launched on 8 August targets three former prime ministers and other ministers. Communal unrest on 6 August exposed intelligence failures, and the death toll from the Sunsari clashes rose to three on 4 August.

Philippines — 68.3 AMBER (severe on governance and security), Δ +0.5. The US criticised China's declaration of a "nature reserve" in the South China Sea on 8 August, when Beijing also imposed "administrative measures" at Scarborough Reef. Heavy rains on 9 August prompted work-from-home orders and postponed the impeachment trial, and the Senate opened an inquiry into substandard infrastructure after a wall collapse in Makati. The economy grew 2.3% in Q2 2026, its slowest since 2009 (7 August).

Indonesia — 59.5 AMBER, Δ +0.1. The military opened an investigation on 9 August into a shooting at a festival in Highland Papua. President Prabowo called on 7 August for a revival of binding state policy guidelines, and the government denied claims of mass protests and August unrest on 5 August. The Jakarta Composite Index fell on 7 August as a stimulus package was prepared against El Niño impacts.

Taiwan — 39.1 AMBER, Δ −1.5. The Cabinet proposed a 2027 defence spending increase on 9 August. Debate intensified on 8 August over the proposed dissolution of a pro-Beijing party, and Taiwan attended the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders' Meeting. Taiwan began its Town Resilience (air-defence) exercise with international observation on 7 August; central Taiwan saw a mobile-network slowdown during an air-defence drill on 10 August.

South Korea — 33.6 AMBER, Δ −1.3. North Korea fired a ballistic missile on 6 August, prompting Seoul to raise vigilance. On 8 August President Zelenskyy warned of a North Korean troop surge to Russia and sought South Korean air-defence help. Ministers clashed publicly on 7 August over North Korea engagement policy, and food prices surged on 9 August during a severe heatwave.

Europe

Ukraine — 83.1 RED, Δ +1.3. Russia intensified its overnight bombardment on 9 August, killing 13 people and injuring 90 across Ukrainian cities, with the Odesa seaport damaged in one of the heaviest barrages of 2026. Strikes killed four in the Kyiv region on 8 August. US stockpile priorities clashed with Ukraine's air-defence needs, while Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner planned visits to Kyiv and Moscow.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 64.8 AMBER (severe on governance), Δ +0.1. EUFOR reserve forces arrived on 8 August for the "Quick Response-26" exercise. S&P warned on 4 August of fiscal pressure ahead of autumn elections, and 30 July polling showed falling public faith in government. Internet outages were detected across several regions on 6 August, and the Council of Ministers ratified the "Southern Interconnection" gas pipeline agreement on 30 July.

Moldova — 62.9 AMBER, Δ +0.9. Fragments of a Russian drone were found in the Ștefan Vodă district on 9 August. Diesel stocks were critically low and public-sector salary increases were postponed on 7 August, when Moldova also implemented measures against power shortages. The National Bank raised its key rate to 7.5% on 6 August, and the government approved a national defence strategy implementation programme on 5 August.

Armenia — 60.3 AMBER, Δ −0.2. Prime Minister Pashinyan confirmed with President Trump on 8 August that implementation of the TRIPP project would begin soon and announced an upcoming resumption of border delimitation with Azerbaijan. The EU announced €10 million in military assistance to Armenia the same day. The head of the Armenian Church faced trial on 7 August over alleged Russian espionage.

Azerbaijan — 60.0 AMBER (severe on governance), Δ −2.0. President Aliyev, Donald Trump and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan marked one year since the Washington peace summit on 8 August, with Aliyev thanking Trump for a G20 invitation. Azerbaijan began rebuilding the power network in 30 Karabakh villages on 9 August. Fitch affirmed the Mortgage and Credit Guarantee Fund at BBB- on 7 August.

Georgia — 57.1 AMBER, Δ −1.9. Prime Minister Gakharia resigned on 4 August, with Georgian Dream moving to nominate a successor. Former UNM officials were found guilty in the Khardziani torture and extortion case on 3 August. The opposition called Prime Minister Kobakhidze's 2008 war statement "treasonous" on 8 August, as the ruling party advanced a new law framed around protecting national identity. A new phase of Anaklia deep-water port construction began on 3 August.

Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed as Gulf revenues squeeze Iraq and Egypt

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Watch list — 48h

Cross-cutting themes