US strikes on Iran push Basra crude past $100 and spill into Iraq and the Gulf

BLUF

The US launched fresh strikes on Iran on 24 July and Iran retaliated against US bases in neighbouring Gulf states, warning it would strike Tel Aviv if Washington widened the campaign to Tehran; Basra crude passed $100 a barrel on 23 July and the US Embassy urged American citizens to leave Iraq immediately. Full country detail sits on the Global Risk board.
The Ebola death toll in the Democratic Republic of Congo passed 1,000 on 23 July in the fastest-spreading outbreak on record, and ADF fighters killed at least 18 civilians in Ituri on 24 July.
Russian and Ukrainian long-range strikes killed at least 31 civilians in the 48 hours to 24 July, including 10 at a Ukrainian defence event, and the EU agreed a new sanctions package against Russia on 23 July.
Venezuela formalised its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court on 24 July, days after a US court set a June 2027 trial date for Nicolás Maduro; Guyana recorded the largest 48-hour move on the board (+6.7) as the MV Barima ferry death toll rose to 57.

Watch list — 48h

#	Country	Composite	RAG	Δ 48h	Lead judgement
1	South Sudan²	100.0	RED	0.0	US court enforces $1bn award; Kiir confirms December re-election bid
2	DR Congo²	96.7	RED	+1.3	Ebola deaths pass 1,000; ADF kills 18 in Ituri
3	Somalia²	96.4	RED	+1.2	African states question AUSSOM future; army kills 18 al-Shabaab
4	Myanmar²	95.0	RED	0.0	TNLA holds first junta peace talks; Rakhine airstrikes continue
5	Palestinian Territories²	94.5	RED	+1.8	Gaza faces prolonged blackout; UK warns of critical food insecurity
6	Venezuela²	94.5	RED	+2.9	Caracas quits the ICC; US sets June 2027 Maduro trial
7	Mali²	93.9	RED	+1.5	UN seeks probe into killing of soldiers; US weighs action on JNIM
8	Syria²	93.2	RED	+0.1	Fuel price rises spark public anger; Iran strikes eastern Syria
9	Chad²	91.0	RED	+0.1	US 'Do Not Travel' listing; Sudanese drone injures civilians
10	Iran²	90.7	RED	+2.1	US resumes strikes; Iran hits US Gulf bases; crude tops $100

² Also holding at the top of the severity range across several dimensions: Ethiopia, Lebanon, Niger, Eritrea, Libya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iraq, Ukraine, Nepal, Egypt, the Philippines, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Guyana, Azerbaijan and Israel.

Largest deteriorations (48h): Guyana +6.7, Georgia +4.0, Ethiopia +3.6, Pakistan +3.6, Venezuela +2.9. Largest improvements: Taiwan −2.1, Moldova −1.2, Turks and Caicos −1.1.

Cross-cutting themes

US strikes on Iran push Basra crude past $100 and spill into Iraq and the Gulf

The US launched new airstrikes on Iran on 24 July and Iran struck back at US bases in neighbouring Gulf states, telling the New York Times it would attack Tel Aviv and urge the Houthis to close the Bab al-Mandab if Washington extended the campaign to Tehran. Basra crude passed $100 a barrel on 23 July, and inside Iran food prices climbed as basic goods grew scarce.

Iraq: the US Embassy urged citizens to leave immediately on 23 and 24 July, citing security tensions and flight disruptions; Turkish Airlines extended cancellations to Iraq from 20 July.
Iran: financial markets reacted to $100 oil on 23 July, and Iranian outlets reported food prices up sharply as war costs mounted (22 July).
Syria: Iranian forces struck targets in eastern Syria as fuel price rises drew public anger (24 July).
Israel: Mossad said on 24 July it had disrupted an Iranian plot to infiltrate agents and target officials, and cities opened bomb shelters on 23 July.

Russia and Ukraine trade long-range strikes as the EU adopts new sanctions

Russian and Ukrainian long-range strikes killed at least 21 people on 24 July, and a separate Russian attack the same day killed 10 and injured almost 100 at a Ukrainian defence event (24 July, sev HIGH, B2). The EU agreed a fresh sanctions package against Russia on 23 July, and President Zelenskyy appointed a new Chief of General Staff on 22 July.

Ukraine: vessel calls to Ukrainian ports were suspended on 23 July over heightened Russian attack risk; strikes hit Zhytomyr, Sloviansk and Zaporizhzhia while Ukraine struck a Russian tanker (23 July).
Moldova: the new government under Prime Minister Vasile Tofan, sworn in on 22 July, advised citizens on 24 July to avoid non-essential travel to Russia.
Georgia: German recognition of the new Georgian president followed a delay (21 July), against continued pro-European protests in Tbilisi and Batumi.

US tariffs and travel warnings land on a widening set of states

Washington imposed 12.5% tariffs on several partners over forced-labour concerns during the cycle and issued fresh 'Do Not Travel' guidance across multiple theatres. The measures reached exporters and diaspora-linked economies well beyond the immediate conflict zones.

Nigeria: the US imposed a 12.5% tariff on Nigerian imports on 25 July; armed attackers killed over 20 people in the northwest the same day (25 July, sev HIGH, B2).
Philippines: new 12.5% US tariffs took effect on 24 July as the peso revisited a record low (23 July); Chinese water cannons struck Philippine vessels in the West Philippine Sea on 24 and 25 July.
South Korea: the US imposed new tariffs over forced-labour concerns on 23 July; Seoul froze fuel price caps on 24 July amid rising oil prices.
Chad and South Sudan: both remained on the US 'Do Not Travel' list (22 July), and the US Embassy in Beirut reiterated the same guidance for Lebanon on 24 July.

Power and fuel failures spread from the Caucasus to the Sahel and Gaza

A nationwide blackout struck Georgia on 24 July (sev HIGH, B1), one of a run of energy and fuel failures across several states over the same days. Regulators in Tbilisi opened an emergency investigation while power and fuel shortages drove protest and hardship elsewhere.

Libya: a severe heatwave and acute power cuts triggered protests in several cities on 23 July.
Gaza: local outlets reported on 24 July that the territory faces years of darkness with electricity infrastructure destroyed, as the UK warned of critical food insecurity (23 July).
Lebanon: the Energy Minister warned of further electricity rationing without monthly funds on 23 July, and fuel prices rose again on 24 July.
Ethiopia: power was restored on 25 July after a six-hour nationwide outage, and the birr weakened to 161.35 against the dollar on 24 July.

Country daily updates

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 100.0 RED, Δ 0.0. A US court enforced a $1bn arbitration award against South Sudan on 24 July, and reports the same day warned that arms smuggling threatens the December elections. President Kiir confirmed his re-election bid on 23 July and signed amendments removing legal obstacles to the polls. Nine passengers were killed at a checkpoint on the River Nile on 23 July, and violent border clashes with Uganda erupted on 18 July. The US and Canada reiterated 'Do Not Travel' advisories on 22 July.

DR Congo — 96.7 RED, Δ +1.3. The Ebola death toll passed 1,000 on 23 July, with 2,536 confirmed cases across Ituri, North Kivu and Haut-Uélé and the fastest spread on record (23 July, sev CRITICAL, A1); Prime Minister Suminwa is to visit the hotspots. ADF attacks killed at least 18 civilians in Ituri on 24 July, and Wazalendo and AFC/M23 forces clashed in Masisi the same day. The Foreign Minister acknowledged a gap between diplomatic progress and conditions in the east on 23 July, and President Tshisekedi agreed to a national dialogue on 21 July.

Somalia — 96.4 RED, Δ +1.2. African Union members questioned the open-ended AUSSOM mission on 22 July over funding, after the US said on 18 July it would block UN logistical support from 2027. The Turkish parliament extended its military mission to 2028 and widened offshore energy cooperation on 23 July. The Somali army killed 18 al-Shabaab fighters in a Hiiraan airstrike on 23 July, and Laftagareen-aligned fighters surrendered in Southwest State on 24 July.

Mali — 93.9 RED, Δ +1.5. The UN called for an investigation into the alleged torture and killing of Malian soldiers on 23 July, and the US was reported to be weighing military action against JNIM (22–23 July). Bamako reaffirmed its sovereignty amid speculation of US intervention on 24 July. The army conducted operations against armed groups in Kidal and Koulikoro on 24 July, and Canada issued an 'avoid all travel' advisory on 22 July.

Chad — 91.0 RED, Δ +0.1. The US State Department placed Chad on its 'Do Not Travel' list on 22 July, and a drone from Sudan injured civilians in the east the same day. Chad's eastern desert region faced a severe water shortage on 23 July, and France and Chad resumed military cooperation on 23 July. The World Bank reported 5.6% growth for 2025 on 24 July.

Ethiopia — 89.8 RED, Δ +3.6. A road accident in Sidama State killed 71 people on 18 July, and a drone strike reportedly killed two nuns and six priests at an ancient monastery on 23 July. Power was restored on 25 July after a six-hour nationwide outage, and the birr weakened to 161.35 against the dollar on 24 July. An opposition coalition and the OLF-OLA rejected the National Dialogue on 22 July, and annual inflation rose to 13.9% in June (21 July).

Niger — 87.4 RED, Δ +0.4. Human Rights Watch reported a deepening rights crisis under military rule on 23 July, and former President Bazoum remained detained three years after the coup (24 July). A military detachment was ambushed in Tillabéri on 22 July with multiple casualties, and the Tahoua governor urged forces to maintain vigilance on 24 July. Niger's telecoms regulator issued a formal notice to mobile operators over service quality on 23 July.

Eritrea — 86.2 RED, Δ +0.5. The US engaged Eritrea and Somalia in talks on Red Sea access on 24 July, following President Afwerki's visit to Sudan on 23 July. Veteran minister Semere Russom died on 22 July. Opposition groups continued moves towards a merger, with a uniting conference being prepared in Nairobi from 19 July.

Nigeria — 85.8 RED, Δ +0.6. Armed attackers killed over 20 people in the northwest on 25 July (sev HIGH, B2), and the US imposed a 12.5% tariff on Nigerian imports the same day over forced-labour concerns. President Tinubu signed an executive order regulating virtual assets on 24 July, and France committed €3.3bn to Nigerian infrastructure on 23 July. The naira strengthened on 23 July as the FX market turned over $1.5bn.

Cameroon — 85.6 RED, Δ +1.6. President Biya's absence, now exceeding 45 days, prompted an emergency ruling-party meeting on 22 July as opposition figures questioned the power vacuum. The military killed two suspected separatists in a Bai Road operation on 23 July. Two people died in an anti-drug operation in Kousseri on 22 July; the deaths triggered protests. Cameroon's Q1 trade deficit reportedly narrowed by 50bn FCFA on 23 July.

Middle East and North Africa

Palestinian Territories — 94.5 RED, Δ +1.8. Al-Quds News Agency reported on 24 July that Gaza faces years of darkness with its electricity infrastructure destroyed, and the British Foreign Office warned of critical food insecurity on 23 July. The Palestinian Authority said on 23 July it would pay only half of public-sector salaries, and Israel's Foreign Minister extended a waiver for Palestinian bank transactions the same day. Oxfam estimated Gaza's reconstruction cost at $71bn on 22 July, and Gaza's Health Ministry reported 12 killed in Israeli attacks the same day.

Syria — 93.2 RED, Δ +0.1. New fuel price increases sparked public anger across Syria on 24 July, and Iranian forces struck targets in the east during the cycle. Syria and Turkey reiterated an aim to lift bilateral trade to $10bn on 23 July, and consultations opened on a new media law on 22 July. The UN Secretary-General announced a visit to meet President Al-Sharaa on 21 July.

Iran — 90.7 RED, Δ +2.1. The US launched fresh strikes on Iran on 24 July, and Iran retaliated against US bases in neighbouring Gulf states, warning it would strike Tel Aviv if the campaign widened to Tehran. Financial markets reacted to oil reaching $100 a barrel on 23 July, and food prices rose sharply as war costs mounted (22 July). The US State Department updated its worldwide travel caution on 22 July.

Lebanon — 87.5 RED, Δ +1.5. The Energy Minister warned of further electricity rationing without monthly funds on 23 July, and fuel prices rose again on 24 July. Israeli operations continued in the south with casualties on 24 July, and Hezbollah rejected disarmament tied to an Israeli withdrawal deal the same day. The US Embassy in Beirut reiterated its 'do not travel' advisory on 24 July, and annual inflation stood at 17.25% as the CPI fell for the first time since January (23 July). US-Lebanon direct flights resumed on 22 July after a decades-long halt.

Libya — 86.1 RED, Δ +2.1. A severe heatwave and acute power cuts drove protests in several cities on 23 July. The US announced plans to reopen its embassy in Benghazi after a 14-year hiatus on 22 July, and the Central Bank reported $15.7bn in foreign-currency sales the same day. GECOL connected a 250 MW gas unit at Zueitina to the grid on 21 July, and Turkey and Haftar's forces deepened military ties on 20 July.

Iraq — 83.6 RED, Δ −0.1. The US Embassy urged citizens to leave Iraq on 23 and 24 July, citing security tensions and flight disruptions, and Turkish Airlines extended cancellations from 20 July. Basra crude passed $100 a barrel on 23 July. Prime Minister al-Zaidi concluded a Tehran visit on 23 July signing four deals, after meeting President Trump on 14 July to discuss a military withdrawal. Parliament held an emergency session on regional developments on 20 July.

Egypt — 71.7 RED, Δ −0.1. Egypt reaffirmed full solidarity with Gulf states and Jordan on 24 July, condemning actions targeting Arab sovereignty. The Foreign Minister called for a diplomatic solution between the US and Iran on 23 July and urged Washington to expedite a Gaza stabilisation force. The Cabinet approved investment, social-protection and housing decisions on 22 July.

Israel — 57.1 AMBER, Δ +0.9. Israel launched a wide-scale military operation in the West Bank on 24 July after a deadly clash near Nablus (24 July, sev HIGH, A2), and Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered accelerated settlement outposts, cancelled permits and a siege of Nablus. Mossad said it disrupted an Iranian infiltration plot on 24 July, and cities opened bomb shelters on 23 July over a possible escalation with Iran. Two Israelis were injured in West Bank stabbings on 23 July, and three Palestinian attackers were killed.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 94.5 RED, Δ +2.9. Venezuela formalised its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court on 24 July (24 July, sev HIGH, B2), and a US judge set a June 2027 trial date for Nicolás Maduro on drug-trafficking charges on 22 July, following a default ruling on 14 July. The World Bank estimated $19.6bn in damage from recent earthquakes on 23 July, and the Red Cross warned the disaster carries epidemic risk. La Guaira Port gradually resumed cargo operations on 23 July.

Guyana — 61.6 AMBER, Δ +6.7 (largest 48h composite mover). President Ali oversaw MV Barima recovery efforts on 24 July as the ferry death toll rose to 57, including 15 children (24 July, sev CRITICAL, B1). Police detained activists at a vigil on 24 July before issuing an apology, and the opposition demanded the Public Works Minister's resignation on 23 July. The US imposed additional 12.5% tariffs on Guyanese imports on 23 July, and Venezuela increased its military presence near the border on 22 July.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 95.0 RED, Δ 0.0. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army held its first official peace talks with the junta on 23 July, against continued military activity including Rakhine airstrikes that killed five and injured 29 on 20 July. The Arakan Army questioned the junta's commitment to peace on 21 July, and an ASEAN envoy said on 23 July that Myanmar leaders' return to regional meetings remains distant. Yangon fish markets reported rising costs and labour shortages on 22 July.

Bangladesh — 84.7 RED, Δ +1.6. President Shahabuddin announced his resignation, effective Friday, on 23 July (23 July, sev HIGH, B1), amid pressure to remove allies of ousted premier Sheikh Hasina. A fire at an LNG terminal cut gas supply on 23 July, and the fuel import bill surged 85% in FY26 (22 July). Mobile internet was shut down again on 20 July, and border guards foiled two push-in attempts by India's BSF on 24 July.

Pakistan — 84.2 RED, Δ +3.6. Terror attacks on the Quetta-Karachi National Highway disrupted travel and trade on 24 July (24 July, sev HIGH, B2), and Pakistan raised petrol and diesel prices for a fourth consecutive day on 23 July. Security forces killed 10 militants in Balochistan on 22 July and six in Mastung on 23 July. Islamabad requested a $10bn US exchange stabilisation facility on 22 July, and the UK updated its travel advisory on 17 July.

Nepal — 72.9 RED, Δ +0.3. Nepal announced the deployment of infrared surveillance drones along its southern border on 25 July, and the Home Minister assured resolution of border-security challenges on 24 July. The Bagmati cabinet was reshuffled on 23 July, with the Nepali Congress gaining key ministries, and the US eased its travel advisory to Level 2 the same day.

Philippines — 68.3 AMBER, Δ +0.8. Chinese water cannons struck Philippine vessels in the West Philippine Sea on 25 July, a day after a similar incident at Bajo de Masinloc (24 July). The US imposed new 12.5% tariffs on Philippine exports on 24 July, and the peso revisited a record low on 23 July amid West Asia tensions. The Metro Manila minimum-wage hike took effect on 25 July.

Indonesia — 59.8 AMBER, Δ +1.0. The US, Canada and Australia warned against non-essential travel to Papua provinces on 21 July over security risks. Indonesia recorded over 32,000 layoffs in the first half of 2026 on 24 July amid a manufacturing slowdown, and the rupiah weakened against the dollar on 23 and 24 July. Bank Indonesia held its rate at 5.75% on 22 July.

Taiwan — 40.7 AMBER, Δ −2.1. China conducted two-day live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait on 23 July (23 July, sev HIGH, B2), and Taiwan detected eight Chinese aircraft and six vessels on 24 July, with six aircraft crossing the median line. Taiwanese think tanks raised 2026 GDP growth forecasts to over 10% on 22 July, and the US kept Taiwan on its currency-manipulation monitoring list.

South Korea — 30.0 AMBER, Δ +1.1. The US imposed new tariffs on South Korea over forced-labour concerns on 23 July, and President Lee Jae-myung signalled a major property-tax overhaul the same day. Seoul froze fuel price caps and extended fuel-tax cuts through September on 24 July, and a special counsel sought a five-year term for former President Yoon on 24 July.

Europe

Ukraine — 82.8 RED, Δ +0.5. Russian and Ukrainian long-range strikes killed at least 21 people on 24 July, and a separate Russian attack killed 10 and injured almost 100 at a Ukrainian defence event the same day (24 July, sev HIGH, B2). Vessel calls to Ukrainian ports were suspended on 23 July over Russian attack risk, and the EU agreed a new sanctions package the same day. President Zelenskyy appointed a new Chief of General Staff on 22 July.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 62.9 AMBER, Δ +1.8. A transatlantic rift deepened over the appointment of the country's High Representative on 24 July, with disputes also over an energy pipeline. The EBRD approved a €60m loan for the Foča-Hum road link on 23 July, and inflation in the Federation slowed to 3.9% the same day, though diesel and petrol prices rose.

Azerbaijan — 60.9 AMBER, Δ +1.4. Azerbaijan expanded government powers to block websites without a court order on 11 July, and President Aliyev signalled possible withdrawal from the Council of Europe on 13 July. Two people were killed and 11 injured in mine explosions in the first half of 2026 (24 July), and exports exceeded $15bn in H1 2026.

Georgia — 59.1 AMBER, Δ +4.0. A nationwide blackout struck Georgia on 24 July (24 July, sev HIGH, B1), and regulators opened an emergency investigation. Germany recognised the new Georgian president after a delay on 21 July, and plans for a new opposition party were announced the same day. Pro-European protests continued in Tbilisi and Batumi from 17 July.

Moldova — 57.2 AMBER, Δ −1.2. The new government under Prime Minister Vasile Tofan was sworn in on 22 July after parliamentary approval on 21 July, with EU accession stated as a priority. Agriculture Minister Radu Musteata resigned after three days on 24 July, and the MFA advised against non-essential travel to Russia the same day. Moldova plans to energise a power line to Romania by August (21 July).

Armenia — 55.9 AMBER, Δ +1.6. Russia banned dairy imports from Armenia on 24 July, a claim the Armenian agency rejected. The government faced accusations of framing the opposition as a national security threat and using terrorism charges against opposition figures on 23 July; six UN human-rights experts questioned the claims. The Prosecutor General opened a criminal case against Narek Karapetyan on 22 July, and planned power outages were announced for Yerevan on 24 July.