Twin earthquakes devastate central-northern Venezuela; US Southern Command deploys for relief

This is the new format for the Crisis Radar daily digest. A few things have changed. Each country name and watch-list entry now links directly to the relevant page on the Crisis Radar site, so you can open the full detail in a browser whenever you want more than the summary. The digest also now includes charts: the overall dashboard, the countries whose risk rating changed in the last 24 hours, and how risk is trending by region. Forward-looking strategic outlooks are deliberately not included yet — those predictive assessments are being tracked against real events over a period and calibrated before they are put in front of you, so what follows is a summary of the current picture, not a forecast. The underlying analysis is unchanged; only the presentation and the added links and graphics are new. Feedback on the format is welcome.

Cycle: 2026-06-29 · 35 countries · 0 events scored (24h) · 0 events reviewed (7d trajectory) · 68 change flags. The events surface was empty in both exports today (a recurring export-layer issue separate from ingestion — the underlying event store carries roughly 600 scored events per day across the set, including over 470 detected in the last 24 hours); the snapshot half (briefing, change flags, indicator-group alignments) is intact and drives this digest.

BLUF

Twin earthquakes of magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5 struck central-northern Venezuela on 24 June, including Caracas and La Guaira. The official death toll stands at over 1,400 and more than 55,000 people are reported missing. Simón Bolívar International Airport (Maiquetía) is closed indefinitely to commercial traffic and has only partially reopened for aid flights. UNDP estimates damages at $6.7 billion. Over 1,600 foreign rescue personnel have arrived, including a US Southern Command deployment requested by Caracas. Annual inflation now stands at 676% as of May and the bolívar continues to depreciate; the government is preparing to disclose a $240 billion debt for restructuring. Oil production and refining are reported undamaged.

The United States, Israel and Lebanon signed a trilateral framework agreement in Washington that includes provision for a partial IDF withdrawal from southern-Lebanon buffer zones. Within 48 hours Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared the agreement "null and void"; Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, echoed the rejection. Israeli forces resumed drone strikes in southern Lebanon, an IDF soldier was killed in a clash, and Defence Minister Katz reaffirmed an indefinite IDF presence in security zones across Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. Hezbollah claims over 300 ceasefire violations since the original truce; Amnesty International has called Israel's expanded southern-Lebanon "no-return zone" a war crime. The full picture across the 35-country set is on the dashboard.

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed last week is also being tested in the open. US strikes have hit Iranian surveillance, air-defence and drone facilities; Iran has retaliated against US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRGC attacked a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz — the first maritime incident since the MoU — and issued new transit directives requiring contact with Iranian naval forces. Tehran has cancelled the next round of technical talks, citing renewed hostilities. Iranian point-to-point inflation reached 89% in urban areas and 108% rural for the month of Khordad; food prices are up roughly 130%.

The Sahel arc continues to test state authority. An attack on Niamey's Diori Hamani International Airport killed 13, including 11 security personnel; Canada and Belgium issued "avoid all travel" advisories for Niger and ISIS released footage of weapons captured from a Nigerien base. In Mali a report indicates President Goïta's transitional mandate has been extended to 2030 without elections; Africa Corps drone strikes are now operating closer to Bamako, and JNIM continues IED attacks. In northern Nigeria, bandits killed 17 farmers in Zamfara and a retired Major General died in bandit captivity in Katsina; the Nigerian Army has deployed 8,000 newly-trained troops in response.

Watch list — 24h

Rank	Country	Composite	RAG	Δ 24h	Lead judgement
1	South Sudan	96.7	RED	-1.7	Elections set for 22 December; SPLM-IO warns against polling in its territories
2	Myanmar	95.5	RED	+0.3	UN flags worsening crisis; inflation near 25%; junta chief secures 18 agreements in China
3	Syria	95.3	RED	+0.1	Tartous undersea internet cable sabotaged; Syrian Airlines resumes Amsterdam route
4	Somalia	93.7	RED	-0.1	South West state suspends federal cooperation; Mogadishu police-gunmen clashes
5	Palestine	93.2	RED	0.0	Gaza water network near collapse; aid access limited to a handful of trucks via Kerem Abu Salem
6	DR Congo	89.8	RED	+0.6	632 civilian deaths in N Kivu/Ituri since 19 March; Goma and Bukavu airports attacked
7	Venezuela	86.3	RED	-0.1	Twin 7.2/7.5 earthquakes; 1,400+ dead, 55,000+ missing, Maiquetía closed to commercial traffic
8	Mali	85.5	RED	-0.6	Goïta's transitional mandate extended to 2030; Africa Corps drone strikes near Bamako
9	Niger	84.5	RED	+0.3	Niamey airport attack kills 13; Canada and Belgium issue "avoid all travel" advisories
10	Chad	82.8	RED	-0.2	World Bank lifts 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%; new command post in Tibesti after army clashes

No country currently meets the "all four indicator groups in sustained-crisis" threshold. Myanmar carries three (Governance & Political Risk, Security Risk, Macro Conditions) and Palestine carries two (Operating Environment, Macro Conditions). All ten watch-list entries hold RED on multiple individual indicator groups — the full sub-group picture is on each country's daily page.

Largest 24h deteriorations: Bosnia and Herzegovina +1.3, Republic of Korea +0.8, DR Congo +0.6, Ukraine +0.5 (RAG flipped to RED), Niger +0.3, Iraq +0.3, Azerbaijan +0.3, Myanmar +0.3, Indonesia +0.3, Libya +0.2, Syria +0.1.

Largest 24h improvements: South Sudan -1.7, Turks and Caicos -1.5, Guyana -1.0, Eritrea -0.7, Taiwan -0.7, Mali -0.6.

Cross-cutting themes

Twin earthquakes devastate central-northern Venezuela; US Southern Command deploys for relief

Two earthquakes — magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 — struck the Caracas/La Guaira corridor on 24 June. UNDP puts damages at $6.7 billion. The official death toll has passed 1,400 with more than 55,000 people unaccounted for. Simón Bolívar International Airport (Maiquetía) is closed to commercial traffic and only partially reopened for aid flights; internet connectivity across the affected region is severely impaired. The Maduro government has formally requested international assistance, and over 1,600 foreign rescue personnel have arrived from multiple countries. US Southern Command has deployed forces for relief operations.

Venezuela (composite 86.3, Δ −0.1): Aid access to the worst-hit areas was initially restricted by the government, drawing domestic criticism over preparedness. Oil production and refining facilities are reported undamaged. Annual inflation reached 676% in May and the official exchange rate now exceeds 612 bolívares to the dollar; the government is preparing to disclose a $240 billion debt for restructuring. Separately, a joint operation killed a prominent Tren de Aragua leader in Bolívar state.

US-Iran MoU signed, then immediately tested across air, maritime and proxy fronts

The Memorandum of Understanding intended to halt US-Iran hostilities and lift the maritime blockade is being violated in the open. US strikes have hit Iranian surveillance systems, air-defence sites and drone facilities. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone operations against US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRGC has attacked a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz — the first maritime incident since the MoU — and issued new directives requiring commercial and energy vessels to contact Iranian naval forces in transit. Tehran has cancelled the next round of technical talks, citing the renewed strikes and unfulfilled MoU conditions. Pakistan, which Prime Minister Sharif credits as the mediator, says a signing ceremony is still expected in Geneva.

Iraq (composite 75.8, Δ +0.3): The GCC has presented evidence that recent attacks on Gulf states originated from Iraqi territory. Baghdad has launched a major anti-corruption crackdown in the Green Zone, arresting dozens of politicians and officials, while Prime Minister al-Zaidi continues to face resistance from Iran-backed militias. Parliament is seeking a 2026 mini-budget of ID20–30 trillion ($15–23 billion) to keep operations running through the oil-export halt.
Pakistan (composite 72.0, Δ −0.2): Cross-border counter-terrorism operations have killed 29 militants along the Afghan frontier; a militant attack on the Pakistan Rangers headquarters in Karachi killed three soldiers and roadside bombings in Bannu killed seven. Inflation is projected to hit a two-year high in June.
Iran (composite 71.5, Δ −0.4): Point-to-point inflation reached 89% urban and 108% rural for the month of Khordad; food prices are up roughly 130% after import-subsidy cuts.

Lebanon-Israel-US framework signed in Washington, immediately rejected by Hezbollah and Berri

A trilateral framework agreement was signed in Washington providing for a partial IDF withdrawal from specific southern-Lebanon buffer zones as a first step towards de-escalation. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared the agreement "null and void" and demanded an unconditional Israeli withdrawal; Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, echoed the rejection. Within 48 hours of the signing, Israel resumed drone strikes in southern Lebanon, an IDF soldier was killed in a clash, and Defence Minister Katz reaffirmed an indefinite IDF presence in security zones across Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. Hezbollah claims over 300 ceasefire violations.

Lebanon (composite 82.3, Δ −0.4): Amnesty International condemned the expanded Israeli "security zone" in the south as an unlawful "no-return zone." All four indicator groups remain in confirmed-deterioration.
Israel (composite 49.2, Δ 0.0): Tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox protesters blocked major roads against mandatory military service. Ben-Gurion Terminal One has reopened, a partial normalisation of the operating environment. The IDF destroyed a large Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon.
Palestine (composite 93.2, Δ 0.0): The Gaza water network is reported close to total collapse; only a handful of aid trucks are entering via Kerem Abu Salem. A UK government bulletin notes that Israeli forces continue to expand control in eastern Khan Younis and northern Rafah, with reporting describing a shift to a "silent annexation" strategy after US objections to a planned operation. A Hamas delegation is in Cairo with a response to new ceasefire proposals.

Sahel state-targeting continues; Mali's transitional mandate extended to 2030

Attacks on capitals and senior leadership figures persist across the central Sahel. In Niger, an attack on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey killed 13, including 11 security personnel; 22 assailants were reportedly neutralised. Canada and Belgium upgraded their advisories to "avoid all travel" and ISIS released footage of weapons captured from a Nigerien military base. In Mali, a report indicates President Assimi Goïta's transitional mandate has been extended to 2030 without elections; Africa Corps is reportedly shifting tactics closer to Bamako and conducting drone strikes, while Human Rights Watch has documented grave abuses against civilians by both Islamist armed groups and Malian forces, including Africa Corps. JNIM IED attacks continue, including an incident in Koulikoro.

Nigeria (composite 75.8, Δ −0.5): A bandit attack in Zamfara killed 17 farmers; a retired Major General died in bandit captivity in Katsina. The Army has redeployed senior officers, deployed 8,000 newly trained soldiers, and arrested seven suspected Boko Haram/ISWAP commanders. Inflation rose to 15.93% in May; Dangote Refinery cut petrol prices and a €365 million energy-infrastructure deal was signed with Germany.
Cameroon (composite 74.6, Δ +0.3): US troops are finalising plans to redeploy to Maroua in the Far North after a seven-year absence; a senior US Special Operations Command Africa general visited Yaoundé. Cameroon and Nigeria signed an MoU on border security and the World Bank approved $1.12 billion for the Douala-Bangui Corridor.

Country daily updates

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 96.7 RED, Δ −1.7. The National Election Commission has set 22 December 2026 as the date for the country's first general elections since independence. The SPLM-IO has warned against any election activities in its controlled territories under current conditions, raising the prospect of an obstructed or partial poll. Security forces recovered 100 cattle and arrested suspects after deadly raids in Greater Mundri that left 32 dead. Juba International Airport's new Terminal 3 is due to open on 9 July, and South Sudan signed a $146 million health deal with the United States.

Somalia — 93.7 RED, Δ −0.1. South West state has suspended cooperation with the federal government, citing federal interference and attempts to destabilise regional leadership. Counter-insurgency operations in Middle and Lower Shabelle, with international partner support, reportedly killed dozens of Al-Shabaab militants. A gunfight in Mogadishu between police and armed men preceded planned opposition demonstrations. Somalia has acceded to 15 international maritime conventions and is planning a new Mogadishu port project.

DR Congo — 89.8 RED, Δ +0.6. The UN Special Representative reports 632 civilian deaths in North Kivu and Ituri since 19 March. RDF-M23 and FARDC fighting has intensified, with human-rights organisations accusing both M23 and pro-government Wazalendo forces of war crimes. Goma and Bukavu airports have been attacked and commercial flights suspended; drone attacks were reported near Kisangani airport. The whereabouts of nearly 300 Ebola patients in Ituri are unknown. The IMF disbursed $348.5 million; essential commodity prices are rising in Kinshasa and fuel prices have nearly doubled in Kananga. The DRC has filed a case against Rwanda at the ICJ and the US has warned peace spoilers it will impose sanctions.

Mali — 85.5 RED, Δ −0.6. A report indicates President Assimi Goïta's transitional mandate has been extended to 2030 without elections, hardening the junta's grip. Africa Corps is reportedly shifting tactics closer to Bamako and conducting drone strikes. Human Rights Watch has documented grave abuses against civilians by both Islamist armed groups and Malian forces, including Africa Corps. FAMa claims to have neutralised approximately thirty individuals in Diéma; JNIM continues IED attacks, including in Koulikoro. Mali has regained a majority stake in national telecom operator SOTELMA. Fuel shortages have caused total water and electricity cuts in Tombouctou.

Niger — 84.5 RED, Δ +0.3. The attack on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey killed 13, including 11 security personnel; 22 assailants were reportedly neutralised. Canada and Belgium upgraded travel advisories to "avoid all travel." ISIS released footage of military-grade weapons reportedly captured from a Nigerien base. The World Food Programme projects 2.4 million people will face severe food insecurity in 2026. Niger has officially notified the UN of withdrawal from the International Criminal Court. €250 million in financing for key economic sectors has been mobilised, and Niger and Benin reaffirmed their commitment to reopen the shared border.

Chad — 82.8 RED, Δ −0.2. The World Bank upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%. The Minister of Armed Forces inaugurated a new command post in Wour, Tibesti province, after recent clashes between the Chadian army and armed traffickers in Yebbibou. An armed group identified as Sudanese refugees was intercepted, disarmed and placed under control at the border. Partial legislative and senatorial elections returned the ruling MPS in both contests; opposition raised concerns about census timing during the rainy season.

Eritrea — 81.3 RED, Δ −0.7. A UN Special Rapporteur warned the Human Rights Council of ongoing crimes against humanity, including forced labour and detention of critics. Ethiopia's government has accused Eritrea of providing "not so hidden support" to rebel groups and pursuing a "low-cost destabilisation strategy" in the Horn; Eritrean opposition groups label Asmara a major threat to regional stability. A UN OCHA delegation visited Asmara for development talks. The Nakfa exchange rate remained fixed against the dollar.

Ethiopia — 81.2 RED, Δ −0.2. The TPLF has accused the federal government of preparing for a new military confrontation in Tigray, following a Human Rights Watch report urging Tigrayan authorities to withdraw an "abusive" compulsory military conscription law. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reportedly bolstered the federal security apparatus against insurgencies allegedly supported by Sudan and Eritrea. The ENDF claims to have killed 230 Fano fighters in a week-long Amhara operation; Fano sources report killing senior ENDF commanders. Canada has recommended against non-essential travel. TotalEnergies announced its exit from Ethiopia's fuel market after 76 years; annual inflation reached 13.4% in May.

Nigeria — 75.8 RED, Δ −0.5. A bandit attack in Zamfara killed 17 farmers; a retired Major General died in bandit captivity in Katsina. The Army redeployed senior officers, deployed 8,000 newly trained soldiers, and arrested seven suspected Boko Haram/ISWAP commanders. Fuel imports rose 59.5% in May despite higher domestic refining; inflation reached 15.93%. Nigeria and Germany signed a €365 million energy-infrastructure deal; Dangote Refinery cut petrol prices; discussions on establishing state police forces are advancing.

Cameroon — 74.6 RED, Δ +0.3. WFP and UNFPA reports detail a deepening humanitarian situation across the Northwest, Southwest and Far North. The US military is finalising plans to redeploy troops to Maroua, ending a seven-year absence, and a senior US Special Operations Command Africa general visited Yaoundé. Cameroon and Nigeria signed an MoU on border security; Cameroon reinforced transborder security cooperation with the Central African Republic. The World Bank approved $1.12 billion to upgrade the Douala-Bangui Corridor.

Middle East and North Africa

Syria — 95.3 RED, Δ +0.1. An international undersea telecommunications cable connecting Tartous was reportedly damaged by alleged sabotage, causing widespread internet outages affecting foreign businesses and humanitarian operators. Major road network rehabilitation has begun, including the M4 highway; Syrian Airlines is resuming direct Amsterdam flights — its first European destination in years. Fuel and gas prices were reduced; the Central Bank published exchange rates for the new Syrian Pound and opened a Raqqa branch for the first time in 14 years. The Democratic Syria Council warned of deteriorating living conditions. The GCC and the US issued a joint statement affirming international consensus on Syria; the UN Security Council renewed the UNDOF mandate.

Palestine — 93.2 RED, Δ 0.0. The Gaza water network is close to total collapse, with local and international bodies warning of a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian and environmental situation. A UK government bulletin underlines persistent security challenges in Gaza, even post-ceasefire, as Israeli forces continue to expand control in eastern Khan Younis and northern Rafah. Reporting describes a shift from a planned operation to a strategy of "silent annexation" after US objections — a framing Hamas has rejected. Only a handful of aid trucks are entering via Kerem Abu Salem. The UN highlights significant hearing damage to tens of thousands in Gaza from explosions since October 2023. A Hamas delegation is in Cairo with a response to new ceasefire proposals. In the West Bank, Israeli forces closed entrances to villages northwest of Ramallah and maintained checkpoints.

Lebanon — 82.3 RED, Δ −0.4. The US-brokered framework agreement with Israel was signed in Washington, then immediately rejected by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem as "null and void" and by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Israeli forces renewed strikes in southern Lebanon, including a drone attack and a clash that killed an Israeli soldier. Israel's Defence Minister affirmed a prolonged presence in a southern Lebanon "security zone"; Amnesty International condemned the expansion as an unlawful "no-return zone." Hezbollah accuses Israel of over 300 ceasefire violations. All four indicator groups remain in confirmed-deterioration.

Iraq — 75.8 RED, Δ +0.3. Security forces have launched a significant anti-corruption crackdown in Baghdad, including the Green Zone, arresting dozens of prominent politicians and officials. Prime Minister al-Zaidi continues to face substantial resistance from Iran-backed militias in efforts to bring them under state control. The GCC has presented evidence that recent attacks on Gulf states originated from Iraq. Parliament is seeking a 2026 mini-budget of ID20–30 trillion ($15–23 billion) to keep operations running through the oil-export halt. The Central Bank has appointed a new governor and reintegrated several banks previously restricted from dollar transactions.

Libya — 74.2 RED, Δ +0.2. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, the High Council of State Chairman and the Presidential Council chief agreed a roadmap for elections by early 2027. The Libyan National Army announced intentions to conduct intensive military strikes on targets in Tripoli, while signalling readiness to negotiate on a US initiative to unify executive authority. Amnesty International reported an intensified crackdown on migrants and refugees with mass arrests and expulsions. Persistent fuel shortages were observed nationwide during Eid al-Adha despite oil production reaching a 12-year high of 1.49 million barrels per day. The Central Bank injected $6 billion to stabilise the dinar.

Iran — 71.5 RED, Δ −0.4. US strikes hit Iranian surveillance systems, air-defence sites and drone facilities; Iran retaliated with missile and drone operations against US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRGC attacked a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz — the first maritime incident since the MoU — and issued new transit directives requiring contact with Iranian naval forces. Tehran has cancelled the next round of technical talks. Point-to-point inflation reached 89% urban and 108% rural for the month of Khordad; food prices are up roughly 130% after subsidy cuts. Annual inflation surged to 88.6%.

Egypt — 58.5 AMBER, Δ −0.1. Egyptian forces conducted a large-scale security crackdown in the Southern Military Region with 223 arrests. Reporting detailed severe conditions for Sudanese war refugees in Egyptian jails alongside surging deportations. Egypt and Turkey signed a military cooperation pact and launched a joint air exercise; Israeli media expressed concern about Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai. The Foreign Minister engaged with the EU Special Representative on the Gaza peace plan and with the UN Deputy Secretary-General on regional crises and UN reform.

Israel — 49.2 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews protested mandatory military service, blocking major roads. The IDF destroyed a large Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon and killed several combatants, but an IDF officer was killed in a Hezbollah clash. Amnesty International accused Israel of war crimes over mass-evacuation orders in southern Lebanon. Defence Minister Katz reaffirmed an indefinite IDF presence in security zones across Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. Ben-Gurion Terminal One has reopened, a partial normalisation of the operating environment.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 86.3 RED, Δ −0.1. Twin earthquakes (magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5) struck the central-northern region on 24 June; the death toll has risen to over 1,400 with more than 55,000 reported missing. UNDP estimates $6.7 billion in damages. Simón Bolívar International Airport (Maiquetía) is closed indefinitely to commercial traffic and partially reopened for aid flights; severe internet outages persist. Over 1,600 foreign rescue personnel from multiple countries are on the ground, and US Southern Command has deployed forces for relief after a formal Caracas request. Annual inflation reached 676% in May; the bolívar continues to depreciate, with the official rate now above 612 bolívares per dollar; the government is preparing to disclose a $240 billion debt for restructuring. Oil production and refining are reported undamaged. Separately, a joint operation reportedly killed a prominent Tren de Aragua leader in Bolívar state.

Guyana — 53.7 AMBER, Δ −1.0. Police seized 23 AK-47 assault rifles and charged a Venezuelan national, alongside ongoing investigations into a teen's death in a police pursuit that sparked protests and a constable charged with murder. The US Trade Representative proposed an additional 12.5% tariff on Guyanese imports over forced-labour concerns. President Ali announced over 35% economic growth for the first half of 2026; the World Bank projects continued strong growth. The Gas-to-Energy project entered its decisive final phase. The Port of Georgetown experienced three days of congestion.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 95.5 RED, Δ +0.3. UN reporting highlights declining humanitarian assistance and ongoing military attacks. The UN Special Envoy notes continued deterioration, contradicting the military administration's claims. Inflation has reached nearly 25%, driven by global fuel-price shocks and conflict. The military chief's visit to China resulted in 18 cooperation agreements. Resistance forces claim significant casualties in Sagaing and Magway; the Arakan Army has captured strategic outposts in Ayeyarwady Region. The military has vowed to suppress resistance near the Russian-backed Dawei Project. The EU reiterated calls for a global arms embargo and the release of political prisoners.

Bangladesh — 73.7 RED, Δ 0.0. The army has been deployed in six districts including Dhaka and Chittagong from 22 to 30 June as a precaution ahead of the banned Awami League's anniversary, with the Home Minister warning against "subversive activities." A Jamaat-led alliance has engaged in protests. A special tribunal sentenced three police officers to death for their roles in suppressing 2024 student protests, including Dhaka's former police chief. The World Bank cleared $1.1 billion in emergency support and is set to approve a further $1.5 billion in budget support; gross foreign-exchange reserves are above $36 billion. PM Tarique Rahman's China visit yielded 13 agreements and technical support for the Teesta master plan.

Pakistan — 72.0 RED, Δ −0.2. PM Sharif announced Pakistan's role in facilitating the US-Iran MoU with a signing ceremony expected in Geneva. Cross-border counter-terrorism operations killed 29 militants along the Afghan border; a militant attack on the Pakistan Rangers headquarters in Karachi killed three soldiers; roadside bombings in Bannu killed seven. The National Assembly passed the Finance Bill 2026 and the government cut petrol and diesel prices, though inflation is projected to hit a two-year high in June. Gwadar Port saw a surge in container traffic from regional shipping disruptions; Pakistan issued a mine warning in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nepal — 64.5 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Traditional parties including Nepali Congress and CPN (UML) are exploring forming a united front against the current government. The Nepal Oil Corporation raised petrol and diesel prices. Nepal has significantly boosted hydropower electricity exports to India and Bangladesh on monsoon flows. The Finance Minister pledged to remove Nepal from the FATF grey list within 18–24 months. The House passed a bill to raise public debt for budget financing. Monsoon flood rescues continued in Jhapa.

Philippines — 60.6 AMBER, Δ −0.2. Manila strengthened security ties with the US, Japan and Vietnam, including a US transfer of P754 million in sea drones to the Philippine Navy and the completion of a fourth bilateral maritime drill with US forces. 26 Chinese vessels were reported in the West Philippine Sea; a previously detected Chinese floating structure was removed from Panatag Shoal. The government certified P344.62 billion ($5.63 billion) in clean-energy projects. PHILCONSTRUCT 2026 opened; fuel prices saw a significant rollback. President Marcos Jr co-chaired the ASEAN-Russia Summit. Preparations are accelerating for the Bangsamoro Parliamentary Elections.

Indonesia — 56.1 AMBER, Δ +0.3. Multiple deaths were reported in mandatory military-style training for cooperative managers (severity 7.6), alongside arrests during anti-government protests in Surabaya over fuel-price hikes. The government announced a US$1.48 billion economic stimulus package; Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark rate to 5.75% to stabilise the Rupiah and curb inflation. PLN is planning major grid expansion in Sumatra after blackouts. The military is preparing 8,000 troops for a potential Gaza peacekeeping mission. The House and government agreed to continue discussions on the Archipelago Bill.

Taiwan — 33.5 AMBER, Δ −0.7. Defence Minister Wellington Koo stated that the warning time for a potential Chinese attack is shortening. China sent 21 aircraft, including J-16 fighters, and multiple naval vessels near Taiwan's territorial waters, concurrent with Taiwan's five-day "Immediate Combat Readiness Exercise" featuring M1A2T Abrams tanks. The Executive Yuan approved a special budget of NT$210 billion (US$6.65 billion) for domestic drone development; President Lai urged swift US approval of a proposed $14 billion arms sale, while the opposition-controlled Parliament stalled the government's drone-spending bill. A cross-party legislative delegation met US officials in Washington. The US issued a travel alert on rising military risks; air travel continued normally.

Republic of Korea — 33.0 AMBER, Δ +0.8. North Korea tested upgraded artillery and missile systems, including a multiple rocket launcher and a ballistic-missile warhead, prompting the US to extend its national emergency declaration. South Korea announced a major military shift, planning to train 500,000 "drone warriors" and acquire 20,000 low-cost drones, including "K-LUCAS" suicide drones. President Lee Jae-myung ordered an investigation into the national football team's World Cup performance. The Democratic Party proposed a constitutional amendment to dismantle the Central Election Commission after a parliamentary probe into ballot shortages. The Bank of Korea warned of rate-hike risks despite strong semiconductor-driven exports.

Europe

Ukraine — 70.5 RED, Δ +0.5 — RAG flipped to RED. Ukraine conducted one of its largest drone attacks on Russian territory and illegally annexed Crimea, targeting energy and military infrastructure, including an oil refinery and an arms plant in Volgograd. President Zelenskyy confirmed an expanded campaign to influence Russia. Russia launched large-scale attacks causing power outages across five Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. Crimea declared a state of emergency due to power-supply instability following Ukrainian strikes. The Defence Ministry announced a partial demobilisation plan for military personnel by the end of 2026. The National Bank of Ukraine maintained its key policy rate at 15%.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 59.2 AMBER, Δ +1.3 (largest 24h composite mover). The Republika Srpska government has proposed a "peaceful separation" from Bosnia and Herzegovina within 30 days, drawing a strong warning from the EU on endangering sovereignty. The European Parliament adopted its annual report on BiH's EU progress, reiterating calls for urgent reforms; the Peace Implementation Council is set to discuss a new High Representative. The Federation of BiH Parliament remains stagnant, not having convened since April. The IMF warned of slowing growth (2.0% in 2026) and rising inflation (5.4% projected). A health alert was issued for Mostar after a landfill fire.

Armenia — 56.5 AMBER, Δ −0.4. The "Eagle Partner 2026" military exercises with the United States, France and Greece concluded on 25 June. PM Pashinyan's Civil Contract party secured a parliamentary majority. The government has stated an aim for full border and transport normalisation with Türkiye and Azerbaijan by 2030, with the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" project expected to commence construction this year. The EU committed to assisting Armenia in road projects to the Turkish border; an internet-transit deal with Azerbaijan was reached. The Central Bank Governor flagged deflationary risks from Russian export restrictions. Armenia secured an €80 million OPEC Fund loan and a $50 million SME loan.

Georgia — 52.0 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Discussions are reportedly underway on the potential deployment of Georgian troops to Gaza as part of a US-backed International Stabilisation Force. The Ministry of Internal Affairs permitted protests near Parliament until 8 July with restrictions. Georgia continued hosting multinational exercises including "Trojan Footprint 2026" and "Caucasus Eagle 2026" with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The National Bank kept the refinancing rate at 8.25% amid elevated inflation; external merchandise trade grew 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with exports up 19.8%.

Azerbaijan — 51.5 AMBER, Δ +0.3. Azerbaijan has further institutionalised its "Western Azerbaijan" campaign, asserting claims over sovereign Armenian territory. PACE adopted a resolution condemning the "silencing of critical voices" in Azerbaijan. The Armenia-Azerbaijan internet-transit deal includes a fibre-optic route through Armenian territory to Nakhchivan, a practical counterpoint to the broader political friction. A state visit from the Turkmen President and Azerbaijani-Turkish foreign-minister discussions continued, alongside President Aliyev's emphasis on Azerbaijan's energy and transport role.

Moldova — 47.9 AMBER, Δ −0.3. Moldova formally initiated EU accession negotiations on fundamental values, reinforced by the second EU-Moldova Summit in Brussels. The state of alert in the energy sector has been lifted. President Sandu called for the inclusion of Russian troop withdrawal from Transnistria in future Ukraine peace talks. Moldovan Border Police denied entry to an alleged Wagner PMC member. The Central Bank raised the key interest rate to 7% to counter inflation; farmers' protests continue to cause localised disruptions to national routes and border crossings.