Strait of Hormuz partially reopens as US-Iran ceasefire extends

This is the new format for the Crisis Radar daily digest. A few things have changed. Each country name and watch-list entry now links directly to the relevant page on the Crisis Radar site, so you can open the full detail in a browser whenever you want more than the summary. The digest also now includes charts: the overall dashboard, the countries whose risk rating changed in the last 24 hours, and how risk is trending by region. Forward-looking strategic outlooks are deliberately not included yet — those predictive assessments are being tracked against real events over a period and calibrated before they are put in front of you, so what follows is a summary of the current picture, not a forecast. The underlying analysis is unchanged; only the presentation and the added links and graphics are new. Feedback on the format is welcome.

Cycle: 2026-06-01 · 35 countries · 0 events scored (24h) · 0 events reviewed (7d trajectory) · 73 change flags. The events surface was empty in both exports today; the snapshot half (briefing, change flags, PIR alignments) is intact, but dated event citations and the Top sources for follow-up reading section are omitted.

BLUF

Palestine is the highest-rated country on the board at composite 67.4 (Δ +0.7) and is now in a sustained-crisis state across all four indicator groups — Governance & Political Risk has joined Operating Environment, Security Risk and Macro Conditions in confirmed crisis. The Israeli Prime Minister has ordered the IDF to expand to roughly 70% of the Gaza Strip; Hamas has warned this could collapse the October 2025 ceasefire and reports cite 910 fatalities and 2,747 injuries from over 3,000 alleged ceasefire violations to date. Israeli settlers raised flags and conducted rituals at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, drawing condemnation from Palestinian factions. The full dashboard carries the per-country picture.

The Lebanon UK-interests indicator (Macro Conditions, score 67.0) moved into a sustained-crisis state today. Israeli ground forces have captured the strategic Beaufort Castle and are described as deepest into Lebanon in over two decades; the IDF recommended intensifying airstrikes and expanding ground operations across the "Yellow Line"; an Israeli airstrike near Tyre wounded 13 healthcare workers and a drone strike wounded two Lebanese soldiers. Annual inflation reached 20.02% in April, the sharpest annual increase since September 2024, and the government plans VAT and tax hikes to fund 50% of the 2026 budget going to public-sector wages. Lebanese and Israeli military officials nonetheless held their first direct, US-backed security talks in decades at the Pentagon.

Mali is second on the board at composite 64.4 (Δ +2.5). Coordinated attacks by JNIM and Tuareg separatist factions across Kidal, Gao and Kati killed Mali's Defence Minister; President Goïta has assumed the defence portfolio alongside a military command reorganisation. Bamako is reportedly under jihadist blockade, with severe fuel shortages and a US emergency travel warning advising reduced non-essential movement in the capital. Moody's has cut the country's outlook to negative on liquidity risk and a recent 7-year bond auction received no bids.

The Strait of Hormuz has begun to reopen. The United States and Iran have reportedly agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days alongside an understanding that Iran reopens the Strait to commercial shipping; rebounding transit and a sell-off in crude futures support the signal. US forces still conducted fresh strikes on an Iranian military site and intercepted drones. Tehran has partially restored international internet access after a near three-month blackout, and the Tehran Stock Exchange reopened after 80 days. Iraq is operating under a "crisis-management" budget and the new PMF integration order from Muqtada al-Sadr offers a thin counter to the fiscal shock.

Watch list — 24h

¹ All four indicator groups in sustained crisis: Palestine (Governance & Political Risk, Operating Environment, Security Risk, Macro Conditions). ² Holds RED on individual indicator groups: Palestine (Macro Conditions, score 72.9).

Largest 24h composite deteriorations: Syria +3.7, Guyana +3.6, Libya +3.4, DR Congo +3.3, Egypt +2.5, Mali +2.5, Ukraine +2.4, Philippines +2.1, Israel +2.0, Iraq +2.0, Niger +2.0.

Largest 24h improvements: Azerbaijan -1.6, Bangladesh -1.2, Iran -1.2, Armenia -1.0, Moldova -0.6, Pakistan -0.6. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Republic of Korea are now all rated AMBER (each was GREEN at the previous Monday digest) and appear in the country updates.

Three new sustained-crisis indicator states activated today: Palestine Governance & Political Risk, Lebanon Macro Conditions, Myanmar Security Risk.

Cross-cutting themes

Strait of Hormuz partially reopens as US-Iran ceasefire extends

After weeks of blockade, the United States and Iran have reportedly agreed a 60-day extension of their ceasefire alongside an understanding for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Transit activity has rebounded; crude futures sold off on the signal; gas-tanker cargoes have begun exiting the Strait. The de-escalation is not clean: US forces struck a fresh Iranian military site and intercepted drones, and the Iraqi fiscal shock from the prior closure remains acute.

• Iran (composite 50.3, Δ -1.2): President Pezeshkian ordered the partial restoration of international internet access after a near three-month blackout; the Tehran Stock Exchange reopened after 80 days, though significant symbols remain closed. The Intelligence Ministry has warned of internal security infiltration and the potential for fresh protests.
• Iraq (composite 45.5, Δ +2.0): The new al-Zaidi government is working without a formal 2026 budget law, operating under monthly spending rules; an adviser publicly called it a "crisis-management" budget. Muqtada al-Sadr ordered Saraya al-Salam to integrate fully into the Iraqi state, supporting the PM's call for a state monopoly on weapons. A PMF member was killed by a sticky bomb in Amara.
• Pakistan (composite 44.0, Δ -0.6): LNG and other cargo ships exited the Strait; the government cut petrol and diesel prices on improved supply. Gwadar Port absorbed re-routed cargo, though Karachi has clearance issues. China publicly acknowledged Islamabad's role in the ceasefire.

Israeli ground push deepens into Lebanon and Gaza

Israel has expanded operations on both fronts inside a single 48-hour window. Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered IDF control to expand to roughly 70% of the Gaza Strip; Israeli forces captured the strategic Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon, the deepest advance in over twenty years. The Israeli Army has recommended intensifying airstrikes and expanding ground operations across the "Yellow Line". Three new sustained-crisis indicator states activated under this pressure: Palestine Governance, Lebanon Macro Conditions, and Myanmar Security Risk separately.

• Palestine (composite 67.4): Hamas has called the Gaza expansion a "blatant violation" of the October 2025 ceasefire; reported figures from Gaza are 910 fatalities and 2,747 injuries from over 3,000 alleged ceasefire violations to date. Israeli settlers raised flags and conducted rituals at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound; an Israeli interception of an aid flotilla in the Eastern Mediterranean continues to constrain access. The UN added Israel to its blacklist for sexual violence in conflict.
• Lebanon (composite 59.1, Δ +1.4): The Health Ministry's casualty toll continues to climb; an Israeli airstrike near Tyre wounded 13 healthcare workers; a drone strike wounded two Lebanese soldiers. Annual inflation reached 20.02% in April. Lebanese and Israeli military officials held their first direct, US-backed security talks in decades at the Pentagon, described as "productive".
• Israel (composite 44.4, Δ +2.0): School closures and the reported temporary relocation of several northern municipal council heads point to a degraded operating environment in the north. The Knesset advanced a government-sponsored dissolution bill; former Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid announced a joint electoral bid. Israel froze relations with the UN Secretary-General over the blacklist decision; a video by Minister Ben Gvir triggered a diplomatic crisis.

Mali Defence Minister killed; Sahel security architecture continues to break down

A coordinated JNIM and Tuareg separatist offensive across Kidal, Gao and Kati killed Mali's Defence Minister; President Goïta has assumed the portfolio and is reorganising the military command. Bamako is reportedly under jihadist blockade, the US has issued an emergency travel warning advising reduced non-essential movement in the capital, and Moody's has shifted the outlook to negative on liquidity risk. The pressure runs east through Lake Chad and west to the Niger junta's media crackdown.

• Chad (composite 53.1, Δ +1.0): Parliament extended the Lac Province state of emergency by three months; foreign governments updated travel advisories, recommending against non-essential travel including in N'Djamena. UNHCR now reports over 1.3 million Sudanese refugees hosted in Chad.
• Niger (composite 45.2, Δ +2.0): The junta ordered the suspension of ten French media organisations citing public order; Canada and the UK maintain "avoid all travel" advisories. The Interior Minister has been implicated in a visa-trafficking scandal and the Oil Minister was reportedly sidelined amid power struggles. The US delivered 1.2bn FCFA of military equipment.
• Cameroon (composite 49.0, Δ +0.3): Separatists abducted around 40 civilians in Bui accusing them of refusing forced labour; a leader within the presidential majority publicly urged President Biya against appointing a Vice-President who could exacerbate national challenges, signalling internal succession friction. Douala port ship calls fell 11% while Kribi rose 19%, signalling a trade-pattern shift.

Constitutional fragmentation across the Horn and Ebola PHEIC in eastern DRC

Somalia's federal-state breach widened today and South Sudan slid further on the humanitarian and security tracks; Ethiopia held elections amid widespread insecurity; eastern DRC's Ebola outbreak has now triggered Level 4 advisories from the US and Canada with enhanced screening, border restrictions, and a US Embassy halt on visa services.

• Somalia (composite 54.4, Δ +0.1): Puntland formally withdrew recognition of President Mohamud's administration; the main opposition Somali Salvation Forum announced weekly protests in Mogadishu starting 4 June; Turkey indicated it will send a mediation delegation. A severe food crisis is affecting 6 million people. The army continues to clash with the ousted Southwest State leader's forces in Baidoa.
• South Sudan (composite 60.4, Δ +1.9): The WFP reports 7.2 million people in urgent food need; the UN Security Council renewed its arms embargo, travel bans and asset freezes for another year. MSF documented escalating violence including indiscriminate attacks on civilians and aid infrastructure; an ambush in Jonglei produced multiple casualties.
• Ethiopia (composite 51.0, Δ +0.8): Parliamentary and regional elections were held with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party expected to win decisively; voting was suspended in Tigray; renewed Fano clashes in Amhara and an OLA transport ban in Oromia disrupted the vote. The ENDF warned the diplomatic community over a "Tsimdo" initiative and Ethiopia faces accusations of facilitating support to Sudan's RSF.
• DR Congo (composite 54.9, Δ +3.3, largest 24h deterioration in the AMBER+ set after Syria, Guyana and Libya): WHO has the eastern Ebola strain classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern; the US Embassy in Kinshasa paused visa services; FARDC/Wazalendo and M23 continued to trade territory around Masisi and Rubaya; ISCAP/ADF is diversifying its funding streams.

Country daily updates

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mali — 64.4 AMBER, Δ +2.5. Coordinated attacks by JNIM and Tuareg separatist factions across Kidal, Gao and Kati killed the Defence Minister; President Goïta has assumed the defence portfolio and reorganised the military command. Bamako is reportedly under jihadist blockade with severe fuel shortages and economic disruption; the US has issued an emergency travel warning for the capital. JNIM also struck five villages near Bandiagara, killing around 20. Moody's shifted the country's outlook to negative on liquidity risk, a recent 7-year bond auction received no bids, and the BCEAO ran a significant liquidity injection tender. Malian army and Russian forces continued operations including reported use of widely-banned submunition weapons.

South Sudan — 60.4 AMBER, Δ +1.9. The WFP reports 7.2 million people in urgent need of food aid in what it terms an "alarming" situation. The UN Security Council renewed its arms embargo, travel bans and asset freezes on South Sudan for another year, citing ongoing instability. MSF documented escalating violence including indiscriminate attacks on civilians and aid infrastructure that significantly impedes humanitarian operations; an ambush in Jonglei produced multiple casualties. The Sudanese refugee influx continues to strain resources, particularly at transit centres.

DR Congo — 54.9 AMBER, Δ +3.3. The eastern Ebola outbreak has prompted Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisories from the US and Canada; the US and Uganda implemented enhanced screening, border restrictions and flight suspensions; the US Embassy in Kinshasa temporarily halted visa services. FARDC and the Wazalendo coalition continued intense fighting with M23 around Masisi and Rubaya, with both sides claiming territorial gains. ISCAP/ADF demonstrated diversified funding streams in eastern regions. The DRC is making progress toward exiting the FATF grey list, a partial positive for macro conditions; military cooperation with Burundi against M23 continues.

Somalia — 54.4 AMBER, Δ +0.1. Puntland has formally withdrawn recognition of President Mohamud's administration after the lapse of his mandate, deepening the constitutional impasse; the main opposition Somali Salvation Forum has rejected his continued tenure and announced weekly protests in Mogadishu commencing 4 June. International partners ran virtual crisis talks with opposition and regional leaders, and Turkey indicated it will send a mediation delegation. A food crisis is affecting 6 million people, driven by soaring fuel and water prices. The army continues to clash with the ousted Southwest State leader's forces in Baidoa; counter-operations against al-Shabaab continue in Hiiraan.

Chad — 53.1 AMBER, Δ +1.0. Parliament extended the state of emergency in Lac Province by three months. Foreign governments updated travel advisories, recommending against non-essential travel including in N'Djamena and citing terrorism and violent crime. UNHCR now reports over 1.3 million Sudanese refugees hosted in Chad, placing considerable strain on resources. The IMF warned of growing economic pressures; monthly inflation for April came in at -3.7%, a mixed signal. A new Cameroon-Chad agreement on cargo traffic offers a minor positive for regional trade.

Ethiopia — 51.0 AMBER, Δ +0.8. Parliamentary and regional elections were held on 1 June with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party expected to win decisively; voting was suspended in Tigray and security concerns persisted across Amhara and Oromia. Renewed clashes involving the Fano militia were reported in Amhara; the OLA imposed a transport ban in Oromia and a major road to Addis Ababa was reportedly blocked with gunfire. Canada updated its advisory urging reconsideration of non-essential travel. The ENDF issued a warning to foreign diplomats over an alleged "Tsimdo" initiative; accusations that Ethiopia facilitated support to Sudan's RSF could complicate regional standing.

Cameroon — 49.0 AMBER, Δ +0.3. Separatists in the Anglophone Northwest abducted approximately 40 civilians in Bui, accusing them of refusing forced labour; an Amnesty International report flagged alarming human rights conditions in the North-West and South-West. A leader within the presidential majority publicly urged President Biya against appointing a Vice-President who could exacerbate national challenges, indicating internal succession friction. Douala port saw an 11% drop in ship calls while Kribi rose 19%, suggesting a shift in regional maritime trade.

Nigeria — 46.4 AMBER, Δ +0.7. The stock market slid on profit-taking; average retail petrol prices rose in April and cooking gas costs remained elevated through May, with the Central Bank holding the policy rate at 26.5%. National power generation dropped by nearly 20% in a single day and broader electricity-sector reforms are seen as having had limited impact; the resurfacing of Apapa gridlock complicates logistics. Dangote refinery's diesel price reduction offers some operational relief. Early political activity for the 2027 elections has begun with opposition candidacies announced.

Niger — 45.2 AMBER, Δ +2.0. The junta suspended ten French media organisations citing public order; Canada and the UK continue to advise against all travel. Reports document severe hunger driving vulnerable populations toward Boko Haram-controlled areas. The Interior Minister has been implicated in a visa-trafficking scandal and the Oil Minister was reportedly sidelined in a power struggle. The US delivered 1.2 billion FCFA of military equipment to the Nigerien Armed Forces; a customs agreement with Nigeria was signed to boost regional trade and the AfDB unlocked over 95 billion FCFA for youth agricultural entrepreneurship. The Dasa uranium project received renewed political backing.

Eritrea — 43.3 AMBER, Δ +0.2. Multiple reports flag heightened conflict risk with Ethiopia, with the Atlantic Council suggesting the two are on the "brink of war" amid accusations of Eritrean coordination with Ethiopian opposition groups. Canada and the UK have maintained travel advisories against non-essential travel. An internal US government document reportedly indicates preparations to lift the 2021 sanctions; President Afwerki nonetheless criticised US global policy in his 35th Independence Day address while the US Secretary of State extended congratulations and sought dialogue.

Middle East and North Africa

Palestine — 67.4 AMBER (all four indicator groups in sustained crisis; RED on Macro Conditions, score 72.9), Δ +0.7. Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered the IDF to expand control to roughly 70% of the Gaza Strip, a move Hamas has called a "blatant violation" of the October 2025 ceasefire and warned could trigger its collapse. Reported figures from Gaza are 910 fatalities and 2,747 injuries from over 3,000 alleged ceasefire violations to date. Israeli settlers raised flags and performed rituals at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, drawing condemnation from Palestinian factions. Israeli forces intercepted an aid flotilla in the Eastern Mediterranean; humanitarian access remains severely constrained. The UN added Israel to its blacklist for sexual violence in conflict, a decision welcomed by Palestinian human rights groups. The Fatah conference reportedly marginalised Gaza representatives, deepening internal political divisions. Gasoline prices are projected to decrease for June, a minor offsetting signal.

Lebanon — 59.1 AMBER (Macro Conditions newly in sustained crisis at score 67.0), Δ +1.4. Israeli forces captured the strategic Beaufort Castle and Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed orders for a deeper incursion, with intensified strikes against Hezbollah targets including in eastern Lebanon — the deepest Israeli advance in over two decades. Two Lebanese Red Cross volunteers have been killed in recent months and an Israeli airstrike near Tyre wounded 13 healthcare workers; an Israeli drone strike wounded two Lebanese soldiers. Lebanese and Israeli military officials held their first direct, US-backed security talks in decades at the Pentagon, described as "productive". Annual inflation reached 20.02% in April, the sharpest annual increase since September 2024, driven by rising fuel prices; the government plans VAT and tax hikes to fund public-sector pay raises, with public-sector wages projected to consume 50% of the 2026 budget.

Iran — 50.3 AMBER, Δ -1.2. The United States reportedly conducted fresh strikes on an Iranian military site and intercepted drones, but is also reported to have agreed a 60-day ceasefire extension with Iran and an understanding for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping; transit activity has rebounded and crude futures have sold off on the signal. President Pezeshkian ordered the partial restoration of international internet access after a near three-month blackout. The Tehran Stock Exchange reopened after 80 days, though significant symbols remain closed. The Intelligence Ministry issued warnings on internal security infiltration and the potential for fresh protests.

Syria — 46.6 AMBER, Δ +3.7 (largest 24h composite mover in the AMBER+ set). President Sharaa held a phone call with US President Trump on bilateral relations and economic support; the Syrian Army participated in Türkiye's EFES 2026 drills, a significant regional cooperation step. Parliamentary elections were held in predominantly Kurdish areas of northeast Syria for a transitional assembly, though Kurdish representation disputes were reported. Multiple reports confirmed the discovery of previously undeclared chemical weapons remnants and associated materials, with 18 detentions. Significant flooding along the Euphrates prompted a presidential visit to Deir Ezzor. Fuel prices rose nearly 28%, drawing public anger.

Iraq — 45.5 AMBER, Δ +2.0. Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr ordered Saraya al-Salam to integrate fully into the Iraqi state, supporting Prime Minister al-Zaidi's call for a state monopoly on weapons. The 2026 budget is in gridlock; an adviser publicly described it as "crisis-management", with the country operating under monthly spending rules and in IMF and World Bank talks for potential external financing. Reduced oil revenues from the prior Hormuz closure continue to compound pressure. A PMF member was killed by a sticky bomb in Amara.

Israel — 44.4 AMBER, Δ +2.0. Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand to roughly 70% of the Gaza Strip; IDF forces crossed the Litani River in southern Lebanon and confirmed the elimination of Mohammed Odeh, the new head of Hamas's armed wing. Hezbollah drone attacks wounded four in northern Israel and prompted school closures near the Lebanon border; several northern municipal council heads have reportedly relocated temporarily. The Knesset advanced a government-sponsored dissolution bill while former Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid announced a joint electoral bid. Israel froze relations with the UN Secretary-General over the sexual-violence blacklist and a video by Minister Ben Gvir triggered an international diplomatic crisis.

Libya — 40.4 AMBER, Δ +3.4. The Libyan National Army concluded its "Shield of Dignity 2" exercise — described as the country's largest ever — while armed groups in Misrata and Zawia continued to reject efforts to unify the Libyan army; UNSMIL warned of potential escalation in Zawia. The cost of living for a family of four is estimated at around $1,365 monthly excluding rent; the dinar continues to weaken against the dollar; Tripoli is experiencing fuel shortages and the e-payment system recently collapsed under transaction volume. A US report praised Libya's role in the multinational Flintlock 2026 exercise.

Egypt — 36.1 AMBER, Δ +2.5. Egypt's "Badr 2026" military exercises in the Sinai drew condemnation from Israeli officials and residents who view the drills as provocative; Cairo issued warnings that continued Israeli operations in Gaza threaten the ceasefire. Reports allege Egypt is arming a Sudanese commander sanctioned by the US for war crimes and operating drone strikes into Sudan from its territory. The US Embassy in Cairo issued an updated Worldwide Caution including new health-screening protocols. The Central Bank held interest rates at 19% but raised its inflation outlook.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 52.9 AMBER, Δ +1.9. A US military exercise in Caracas involving MV-22B Osprey aircraft prompted public protests, with Cuba making "red line" statements on external presence. Opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia reiterated calls for new presidential elections, roughly five months into the interim administration; interim President Delcy Rodríguez announced a national consultation on criminal-justice reform. An economist projected 192% bolivar inflation by year-end with accumulated inflation already at 72% by April; banking credit remains constrained by high legal reserve requirements. Venezuela circulated draft oil regulations to attract foreign investment, projects oil production rising to 1.32 million barrels per day by year-end, and reported 2.51% Q1 GDP growth led by the non-oil sector. Alex Saab has been deported to the US to face money-laundering charges.

Guyana — 38.4 AMBER, Δ +3.6. Multiple attacks on Guyana Defence Force patrols near the Venezuelan border have injured one soldier; Georgetown has engaged allies for intelligence support, deployed additional security assets and ran joint exercises with the US Navy and Brazil. President Ali noted regional security improvements following political developments in Venezuela but the border incidents indicate continued localised tensions. The Karpowership contract approaches its end with the government still silent on extension, raising blackout concerns; the Wales Gas-to-Energy project faces a projected two-year delay and US$884 million cost increase on rising fuel-import bills. Parliament is set to reconvene on 5 June, reportedly under diplomatic pressure.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 62.7 AMBER (Security Risk newly in sustained crisis at score 67.8), Δ +1.0. A blast in Namhkam district, Shan State, killed dozens with reports suggesting mining explosives were involved. The military intensified offensives across Kachin, Chin and Karen states, targeting rare-earth deposits and trade routes; the regime announced the recapture of Tonzang and Mawtaung. Min Aung Hlaing, now President, commenced his first foreign visit, to India. The Myawaddy-Mae Sot Friendship Bridge 2 reportedly reopened. Farmers face spiralling fertiliser and fuel costs threatening upcoming harvests; rice and maize prices have risen sharply, while international funding for legal aid to migrants has decreased. The kyat has held against the dollar.

Bangladesh — 47.3 AMBER, Δ -1.2. US, UK and Canada travel advisories remain elevated citing post-election violence and unrest. Authorities have implemented multi-layered security for the Eid al-Adha holiday after a recent attack on a joint forces camp in Chittagong. Fitch revised Bangladesh's outlook to negative on external financing pressures, and IMF discussions for a new assistance programme are underway. Border vigilance has increased on concerns of forced crossings from India and implications of Myanmar's Chin State offensive; the Army Chief noted troops are gradually returning to barracks.

Philippines — 45.2 AMBER, Δ +2.1. The central bank projected May inflation at 7.1-7.9%, prompting consideration of an off-cycle rate hike; the peso continues to trade near record lows and the trade deficit widened in April; economists revised down 2026 growth forecasts. Reports cite 36 Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea and a second combat-readiness patrol near Scarborough Shoal; potential new Chinese structures in Panatag Shoal are under verification. Japan pledged significant defence equipment and technology; Manila hosted Balikatan 2026 and Salaknib 2026 with the United States. The Department of Energy warned of further rotational blackouts due to El Niño. President Marcos publicly denied "no election" scenarios; the Senate tightened security as Vice-President Sara Duterte faced an impeachment deadline.

Nepal — 44.4 AMBER, Δ +0.8. The government unveiled a record Rs 2.124 trillion budget for FY 2026/27, including a 21% civil-service salary hike; the Nepal Rastra Bank held a flexible monetary policy. The National Human Rights Commission recommended departmental action against the Inspector Generals of the Nepal Police and Armed Police Force; concerns were raised over the army's expanding role in civilian affairs, including during recent landless-settler evictions. India-Nepal border security has been heightened following reported lapses.

Pakistan — 44.0 AMBER, Δ -0.6. A suicide blast near Quetta killed at least 23 and wounded 70; Canada updated its advisory citing unpredictable security and terrorism threats; the TTP claimed multiple attacks in Khyber. LNG and other cargo ships exited the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy disruption; the government cut petrol and diesel prices in response. A new report puts roughly 25% of 2025 electricity consumption from solar, partially insulating the economy from energy shocks. Gwadar Port saw increased cargo from Hormuz reroutes; Karachi has clearance issues. Pakistan continues to mediate US-Iran contacts, with China acknowledging the role. Budget sessions are scheduled for 5 June.

Indonesia — 39.4 AMBER, Δ +1.8. The rupiah depreciated to a record low against the US dollar, prompting Bank Indonesia to pledge 24-hour intervention. The government's new policy to centralise key commodity exports — coal, palm oil, ferroalloys — through a state-owned enterprise has begun a seven-month transition. President Prabowo concluded a European visit securing US$3.5bn in deals, primarily for energy, and emphasised strengthening defence capabilities. Amnesty International accused Indonesian authorities including the military of online disinformation campaigns against critics. Separatists claimed responsibility for killing eight gold miners in Papua. A new decree permits a state agency to import oil and LPG to bolster energy security; subsidised fuel prices remain frozen through year-end.

Taiwan — 32.4 AMBER, Δ +0.3. The US has confirmed a "pause" in arms sales to Taiwan, reportedly to prioritise munitions for the Iran conflict; Taiwan's Defence Minister Koo pledged continued strengthening of self-defence and US military cooperation. China conducted a second "joint combat readiness patrol" near Taiwan involving 21 aircraft and warships, and is reported to be building launch pads near nuclear-missile silos. President Lai Ching-te reaffirmed sovereignty and "mutual non-subordination". The DGBAS raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to a 16-year high of 9.64% on AI demand; the consumer confidence index fell to a three-year low on external uncertainties.

Republic of Korea — 32.3 AMBER, Δ +0.2. President Lee Jae-myung emphasised strengthening self-reliant national defence, including accelerated acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, as North Korea launched a close-range ballistic missile and other projectiles from its west coast. Upcoming US-ROK security talks will address nuclear-submarine and uranium-rights questions. The national terror alert was raised to "Caution" ahead of 3 June local and by-elections; the opposition has accused President Lee of election interference. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month KOSPI target to 9,000 citing a semiconductor supercycle. The 22nd National Assembly's first half-term concluded; a new Speaker election is set for 5 June.

Europe

Ukraine — 46.4 AMBER, Δ +2.4. A drone strike hit the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, as confirmed by the UN nuclear agency. Ukraine reported hitting 18 Russian oil facilities in May and claimed destruction of a rare Tu-142MR submarine communications aircraft at a Russian airfield. President Zelenskyy warned of a potential major Russian strike. The United States imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors, with implications for global energy markets and Moscow's war financing. Parliament passed budget amendments for defence financing; the April economy showed some improvement led by the defence industry. A drone crash into a Romanian apartment building underlined the broader regional vulnerability to aerial warfare.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 43.6 AMBER, Δ +1.5. High Representative Christian Schmidt reported facing "enormous pressure" from the United States and issued a stark warning on disintegration risks; the US State Department declared the "US-led nation-building era" in the Balkans over. Debate intensified over Schmidt's succession with former High Representatives and Milorad Dodik calling for the abolition or reform of the OHR. Dodik threatened to halt EU negotiations if Republika Srpska's property rights are undermined and participated in a security forum in Moscow. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.8% in April, the highest since May 2023; the EU Commission cut BiH's 2026 GDP forecast to 1.8%. Canada updated its travel advisory citing crime and landmine risks; a border crossing was relocated after a bridge collapse.

Moldova — 35.6 AMBER, Δ -0.6. The Ministry of Defence announced the movement of Piranha-3H vehicles and other equipment to training centres for planned exercises. President Sandu and Romanian officials condemned a drone incident in Romania, underscoring regional security concerns; the Defence Minister alleged an organised campaign to discredit the National Army. The National Bank projects 2% growth for 2026 but warns inflation will exceed 8%; the World Bank's revised forecast is 1.9% and Fitch projects 3% average growth for 2026-2027. President Sandu reaffirmed Moldova's commitment to its EU path despite negotiation delays.

Armenia — 34.5 AMBER (flipped from GREEN), Δ -1.0. Moscow issued warnings on potentially suspending cheap energy supplies if Armenia pursues closer EU ties; reports suggest Russian covert efforts including disinformation campaigns aimed at influencing the 7 June parliamentary elections. The US Secretary of State's visit to Yerevan signals continued Western engagement. Human Rights Watch raised concerns about the fairness and legitimacy of the election. Armenian defence authorities imposed a temporary ban on photo and video recording of military equipment movements in Yerevan ahead of a planned parade. An $80m road and bridge construction project commenced in Yerevan; Zvartnots Airport received passenger service quality accreditation.

Georgia — 33.5 AMBER, Δ -0.3. The United Kingdom imposed sanctions on three Georgian companies for alleged Russian sanctions evasion. Authorities detained a journalist and the head of the Eurasia Institute on espionage charges; opposition groups proceeded with an Independence Day rally in Tbilisi despite official restrictions. The Prosecutor General is investigating a viral video depicting a police beating and six officers were remanded in custody for a separate assault case. The Lari strengthened and April GDP growth came in at 6.2%; the Interior Ministry ran an anti-organised crime operation.

Azerbaijan — 30.8 AMBER (flipped from GREEN), Δ -1.6. The Baku Court of Appeals initiated hearings for former Artsakh military and political leaders previously sentenced to long prison terms. Military cooperation with Türkiye continues to strengthen under the Shusha Declaration with a focus on joint defence capabilities; routine military exercises including the pentathlon championship and reservist training continue. A Russian official's statement on Armenia's gas supply highlighted regional energy dependencies; domestic SOCAR Petroleum reports indicate impending fuel-price changes.