Strait of Hormuz: US strikes and IRGC threats while a framework via Islamabad takes shape

This is the new format for the Crisis Radar daily digest. A few things have changed. Each country name and watch-list entry now links directly to the relevant page on the Crisis Radar site, so you can open the full detail in a browser whenever you want more than the summary. The digest also now includes charts: the overall dashboard, the countries whose risk rating changed in the last 24 hours, and how risk is trending by region. Forward-looking strategic outlooks are deliberately not included yet — those predictive assessments are being tracked against real events over a period and calibrated before they are put in front of you, so what follows is a summary of the current picture, not a forecast. The underlying analysis is unchanged; only the presentation and the added links and graphics are new. Feedback on the format is welcome.

Cycle: 2026-05-26 · 35 countries · 0 events scored (24h) · 0 events reviewed (7d trajectory) · 75 change flags. The events surface was empty in both exports today; the snapshot half (briefing, change flags, PIR alignments) is intact, but dated event citations and the Top sources for follow-up reading section are omitted.

BLUF

Gaza is the highest-rated country on the board at composite 64.7 (Δ +1.0). The Palestinian Cabinet has warned of renewed famine across roughly 1.6 million people, with reported poverty above 90% and unemployment above 80% in the worst-hit districts; Macro Conditions sit in the high-risk band (score 71.9) and in a sustained-crisis state, with the operating environment for any humanitarian or commercial actor effectively non-permissive. A separate Israeli strike on a displaced-persons camp killed a woman and child during the nominal ceasefire, and the IDF now controls around 60% of the Gaza Strip. The full dashboard carries the per-country picture.

Mali sits second at 63.8. The JNIM-FLA partial blockade around Bamako has held into a third week, driving fuel rationing and a sharp rise in living costs inside the capital; Amnesty International and UN OCHA have publicly flagged the deterioration in humanitarian access. Canada moved its travel advisory to "Avoid All Travel". The Malian army with Russia's Africa Corps has run resupply convoys to Diafarabé and strikes in Koulikoro, but the Azawad Liberation Front has consolidated control in Kidal and the corridors into Bamako remain contested.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant regional flashpoint. US forces conducted further self-defence strikes on missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran; the IRGC warned that renewed strikes on Iran would expand the war beyond the region. In parallel, talks via Pakistan have produced a reported draft framework under which Iran would relinquish highly enriched uranium and restore pre-war Hormuz passage — though President Trump has cautioned against a rushed deal and confirmed the US blockade remains in place, contradicting elements of the draft. The IRGC has claimed it coordinated transit for 26 vessels; EU member states are advancing sanctions on Iranian officials over the blockade.

Lebanon holds at composite 57.9 with Macro Conditions in a sustained-crisis state at score 66.3. The Health Ministry now puts the death toll from Israel's campaign since 2 March at more than 3,100, with over 9,500 wounded; the IMF and independent forecasters project a 7-10% economic contraction for 2026, and 1.24 million people are now projected to face acute food insecurity. A 45-day US-brokered ceasefire extension is in place alongside a planned military-track session in Washington, but Israeli strikes continued in the south and east and the assassination of senior Radwan Force commander Ahmed Ghaleb Balout in Beirut earlier this week has hardened both sides.

Watch list — 24h

² Holds RED on individual indicator groups: Palestine (Macro Conditions, score 71.9).

Largest 24h composite deteriorations (AMBER+): Chad +2.2, Indonesia +1.7, Georgia +1.6, Niger +1.5, Guyana +1.4, Pakistan +1.1, Palestine +1.0. Turks and Caicos posted the cycle's largest 24h shift at +7.3 but remains GREEN at composite 24.0.

Largest 24h improvements: Taiwan -3.3, Syria -1.8, South Sudan -1.0, Moldova -0.7, Republic of Korea -0.7 (flipped to GREEN at composite 29.5), Myanmar -0.6.

Cross-cutting themes

Strait of Hormuz: US strikes and IRGC threats while a framework via Islamabad takes shape

The blockade and military exchanges in and around the Strait dominate the security picture across four countries. US forces struck missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran; the IRGC said renewed strikes would expand the war beyond the region and claimed to have coordinated transit for 26 vessels. Pakistan-mediated talks have produced a reported draft framework — Iran relinquishing highly enriched uranium, pre-war Hormuz passage restored — but President Trump has stated the US blockade stays in force, contradicting elements of the draft. EU states are moving on sanctions targeting Iranian officials.

• Iraq (composite 47.9): Parliament approved Ali al-Zaidi as Prime Minister with a partial cabinet; the UAE reported that drones targeting its Barakah nuclear plant originated from Iraqi territory, and Iran-backed Harakat Al-Nujaba rejected proposed integration of the PMF into formal security structures. An estimated $9.5bn monthly fiscal deficit from Hormuz disruption has pushed Baghdad into preliminary IMF and World Bank talks.
• Israel (composite 42.8): Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified strikes on Hezbollah; the Air Force is reportedly preparing for action against Iran, and a tense Trump-Netanyahu call over the mediation reportedly followed.
• Pakistan (composite 44.7): Prime Minister Sharif announced Islamabad would host the next round of US-Iran talks; Gwadar Port has absorbed re-routed Hormuz cargo, while a suicide bombing of a passenger train in Quetta killed at least 23.
• Lebanon (composite 57.9): The US imposed sanctions on Lebanese officials and the Iranian Ambassador over alleged Hezbollah ties.

Northern Israel-Lebanon front intensifies through the ceasefire extension

The 45-day US-brokered ceasefire extension has not interrupted reciprocal strikes. A surge in Hezbollah drone attacks killed an IDF soldier and wounded seven; Netanyahu ordered the IDF to intensify strikes, right-wing ministers advocated for resuming strikes on Beirut, and an Israeli airstrike killed senior Radwan Force commander Ahmed Ghaleb Balout in Beirut earlier this week. Lebanon's death toll has passed 3,100 since 2 March; the projected 2026 contraction has widened to 7-10% and food-insecurity projections now run to 1.24 million.

• Israel (composite 42.8): The Knesset overwhelmingly advanced a self-dissolution bill, and a Knesset committee progressed bills to split and limit the Attorney General's powers — domestic political friction running in parallel to the security escalation.
• Lebanon (composite 57.9): Hezbollah's leadership rejected disarmament calls and warned the government against confronting the group; the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Lebanese officials. The military-track session in Washington is scheduled for 29 May.

Bamako blockade and Lake Chad emergency compound Sahel pressure

The Bamako blockade has held, with knock-on effects across the basin. JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front have maintained pressure on supply lines into the capital; Mali's army with Russia's Africa Corps has run convoys to Diafarabé and strikes in Koulikoro but has not broken the chokehold. To the east, Lake Province in Chad is under a parliament-extended three-month state of emergency after the recent Boko Haram attacks that killed soldiers including two generals; the Chadian government has publicly rejected the UN's accusation of around 100 civilian deaths from anti-Boko Haram airstrikes.

• Mali (composite 63.8): Canada moved to "Avoid All Travel"; the Azawad Liberation Front has consolidated in Kidal; Amnesty International and UN OCHA have flagged drastic deterioration in humanitarian access.
• Chad (composite 51.6, Δ +2.2): The Supreme Court definitively upheld former Prime Minister Succès Masra's 20-year sentence; the US State Department maintained its Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory.
• Cameroon (composite 41.6): Separatists in the Anglophone Northwest abducted around 40 civilians in Bui, with the US renewing its Level 2 travel advisory specifically warning against travel to the Southwest, Northwest and Far North regions. The Army Chief of Staff was conspicuously absent at National Unity Day, fuelling succession speculation.
• Niger (composite 45.9, Δ +1.5): The WFP projects 2.4 million people in severe food insecurity for 2026; authorities ordered the eviction of roughly 26,000 residents around Niamey International Airport on security grounds. The state created TSUMCO and ended Orano's Arlit uranium concession.
• Nigeria (composite 48.4): A joint US-Nigeria operation in the Lake Chad basin reportedly killed 175 Islamic State fighters; the same window saw an ISWAP attack in Borno that killed 29 civilians.

Eastern DRC Ebola PHEIC and Horn of Africa political ruptures

The Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, with confirmed cases now appearing in rebel-held South Kivu and protesters attacking treatment centres in Ituri. Canada and the United States raised their travel advisories to Level 4. Across the Horn the political picture has hardened in parallel.

• DR Congo (composite 53.5): Heavy clashes continued in North Kivu around Walikale; drones were reported near Rubaya and Rumangabo, with air traffic disruption at Bangboka airport. The DRC is demanding an additional $17bn from its 2008 infrastructure deal with Chinese investors.
• Somalia (composite 57.2): President Mohamud's term lapsed on 15 May without an electoral agreement; opposition groups no longer recognise his legitimacy and have announced weekly protests in Mogadishu. Puntland declared it will engage with international partners directly. Aid agencies flagged a credible famine risk in Burhakaba.
• South Sudan (composite 52.8, Δ -1.0): The US imposed visa restrictions on transitional officials citing peace-deal obstruction and corruption; the RJMEC stated peace implementation has "considerably faltered" and a senior SPLM official threatened to abandon the deal. Around 304,000 people have been displaced in Jonglei since January.
• Ethiopia (composite 49.7): The Atlantic Council describes Ethiopia and Eritrea as "on the brink of war"; the Ethiopian military issued a warning to the diplomatic community over the "Tsimdo" initiative; fighting between Amhara Fano forces and government troops continued across multiple zones.

Country daily updates

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mali — 63.8 AMBER, Δ +0.6. The JNIM-FLA partial blockade around Bamako has held into a third week, with sustained pressure on supply lines into the capital. Fuel rationing and a sharp rise in living costs are visible in the city. Canada moved its travel advisory to "Avoid All Travel"; France reiterated an "extremely volatile" assessment. The Malian army with Russia's Africa Corps has convoyed food into Diafarabé in Mopti and struck armed groups in Koulikoro, but the Azawad Liberation Front has consolidated in Kidal and humanitarian access is degrading.

Somalia — 57.2 AMBER, Δ +0.1. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's constitutional mandate lapsed on 15 May without an electoral agreement. Opposition groups have rejected his legitimacy and announced weekly protests in Mogadishu; Puntland has stated it will engage with international partners directly. Aid agencies have flagged a credible famine risk in Burhakaba District and 6 million people facing acute food insecurity; the army reported killing around 50 al-Shabaab militants near Baidoa and 26 in the Hiiraan region. The 2025 GDP growth projection has moderated to 3% as foreign aid declines.

DR Congo — 53.5 AMBER, Δ +0.2. Canada and the United States raised travel advisories to "Do Not Travel" citing the Ebola outbreak and active conflict; the US Embassy in Kinshasa paused visa services. WHO has declared the eastern outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, with a confirmed case now in rebel-held South Kivu and protesters attacking treatment centres in Ituri. FARDC and Wazalendo militias continued heavy clashes with M23 and AFC around Walikale; drone attacks were reported near Rubaya and Rumangabo. The DRC is demanding an additional $17bn from its 2008 infrastructure-for-minerals deal with Chinese investors.

South Sudan — 52.8 AMBER, Δ -1.0. The United States imposed visa restrictions on transitional government members citing obstruction of the 2018 peace agreement and corruption; the RJMEC publicly stated implementation has "considerably faltered" and the SPLM-IO rejected proposed amendments to the deal. Around 304,000 people have been displaced in Jonglei since January. The State Department maintained its Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory, also citing the Ebola outbreak. The RSF's repeated threats to disrupt oil flow in Sudan pose a direct risk to Juba's main revenue source.

Chad — 51.6 AMBER, Δ +2.2 (largest 24h composite mover in the AMBER+ set). The Supreme Court definitively upheld former Prime Minister Succès Masra's 20-year prison sentence; parliament extended the state of emergency in Lake Province by three months. The government rejected the UN's accusation that approximately 100 civilians were killed by Chadian airstrikes against Boko Haram in the Lake Chad basin. The US State Department maintained its Level 4 advisory, and humanitarian conditions are worsening on the Sudanese-refugee influx.

Ethiopia — 49.7 AMBER, Δ +0.7. The Atlantic Council described Ethiopia and Eritrea as "on the brink of war", with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of coordinating with opposition groups. The Ethiopian military issued a warning to the diplomatic community framing the "Tsimdo" initiative as a critical sovereignty threat. Fighting between Amhara Fano forces and federal/Oromo Prosperity Party troops continued across multiple zones. The US Embassy updated its travel advisory urging reconsideration of travel; offsetting signals included a US bilateral structured-dialogue framework, a WTO accession protocol with India, and new agreements with France on energy and digital transformation.

Nigeria — 48.4 AMBER, Δ -0.3. A joint US-Nigeria operation in the Lake Chad basin reportedly killed 175 Islamic State fighters; an ISWAP attack in Borno killed 29 civilians and 92 people previously abducted by Boko Haram were rescued. The Dangote Refinery sued to halt fuel imports, threatening a fresh fuel-market disruption; the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority suspended services to 11 domestic airlines over unpaid charges. Inflation climbed to 15.69% in April and the central bank held the policy rate at 26.5%. President Tinubu was nominated as the APC candidate for 2027.

Niger — 45.9 AMBER, Δ +1.5. The WFP projects 2.4 million Nigeriens in severe food insecurity in 2026. Authorities ordered the eviction of roughly 26,000 residents from areas around Niamey International Airport on security grounds. The army launched joint border operations with Algeria and Chad; the country hosted the first Confederation of Sahel States DDR forum. The state created uranium company TSUMCO, ending Orano's Arlit concession; Niamey claimed 10.4% GDP growth for 2024 and mobilised 181bn FCFA on the UEMOA market. Mass deportations from Algeria continued, with over 14,000 expelled this year.

Cameroon — 41.6 AMBER, Δ -0.1. The US State Department renewed its Level 2 travel advisory specifically warning against travel to the Southwest, Northwest and Far North regions. Separatists in the Anglophone Northwest abducted around 40 civilians in Bui, accusing them of refusing forced labour; Nigerian forces neutralised 12 Boko Haram/ISWAP fighters near the Cameroon border. The Army Chief of Staff was conspicuously absent at National Unity Day, fuelling succession speculation. Public debt reached $27.5bn by March, up 6% year-on-year.

Eritrea — 40.1 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Multiple reports highlight a heightened risk of renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, with Addis accusing Asmara of aggression and coordinating with Ethiopian opposition factions. Eritrea signed a new maritime transport agreement with Egypt establishing a shipping line and ports cooperation, against a backdrop of Red Sea diplomatic realignment. President Afwerki's Independence Day address questioned US global policy. The Nakfa held its fixed peg to the US dollar.

Middle East and North Africa

Palestine — 64.7 AMBER (high risk on Macro Conditions, score 71.9), Δ +1.0. Oxfam and UN agencies report dramatic food-price increases and children dying of malnutrition; the Palestinian Cabinet has warned of renewed famine. Reported Gaza poverty is above 90%, unemployment above 80%, with Khan Yunis described as a near-total economic collapse. Israeli forces reportedly fired on UN vehicles at the Rafah crossing; humanitarian funding remains far below required levels. A separate Israeli strike on a displaced-persons camp killed a woman and a child; the IDF reports operational control of around 60% of Gaza. An Israeli airstrike killed Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Haddad, prompting an Al-Qassam Brigades leadership change.

Lebanon — 57.9 AMBER, Δ +0.3. The death toll since 2 March has passed 3,100 with over 9,500 wounded; Israeli strikes continued in the south and east despite a 45-day US-brokered ceasefire extension. Projections now show a 7-10% economic contraction in 2026; consumer prices have jumped over 20% year-on-year, and 1.24 million people are projected to face acute food insecurity. Hezbollah's leadership has rejected disarmament calls and warned the government against direct talks with Israel; the US imposed sanctions on Lebanese officials and the Iranian Ambassador over alleged Hezbollah ties. A senior US official reportedly hinted at support for further Israeli escalation. The military-track session in Washington is set for 29 May.

Iran — 55.5 AMBER, Δ -0.3. US forces conducted self-defence strikes on missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran; the IRGC warned that renewed strikes on Iran could expand the war beyond the region with "crushing blows". US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described significant progress in US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan; a reported draft framework has Iran relinquishing highly enriched uranium and restoring pre-war Hormuz passage, but President Trump has cautioned against a rushed deal and confirmed the US blockade stays in place. The IRGC claimed to have coordinated transit for 26 vessels; EU member states are advancing sanctions on Iranian officials over the blockade.

Iraq — 47.9 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Parliament approved Ali al-Zaidi as Prime Minister with a partial cabinet; al-Zaidi has pledged a state monopoly on weapons. The UAE reported that drones targeting its Barakah nuclear plant originated from Iraqi territory, prompting the National Security Council to investigate cross-border attacks. Iran-backed Harakat Al-Nujaba publicly rejected integration of the PMF into formal security structures, labelling disarmament an external project. An estimated $9.5bn monthly fiscal deficit, driven by collapsed oil exports and Hormuz disruption, has pushed Baghdad into preliminary IMF and World Bank emergency-funding talks; the country is operating under a one-twelfth monthly spending rule. An IED blast in the north killed three soldiers; the PMF launched a wider operation against ISIS. Reports also emerged of an alleged secret Israeli military base in the Najaf desert.

Israel — 42.8 AMBER, Δ -0.2. Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the IDF to intensify strikes against Hezbollah following a drone surge that killed an IDF soldier and wounded seven; Israeli airstrikes targeted multiple Lebanese locations and right-wing ministers pressed for resumed strikes on Beirut. The Air Force is reportedly preparing for potential action against Iran, with the IDF at its highest alert level. The Knesset overwhelmingly advanced a bill to dissolve parliament, starting the early-election process; a committee progressed bills to split and limit the Attorney General's powers. A tense Trump-Netanyahu phone call followed reports of the US-Iran framework.

Libya — 40.3 AMBER, Δ -0.2. Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba's office in Tripoli was partially burned during civil unrest following a football-related incident. The Libyan National Army conducted large-scale exercises in eastern Libya and Deputy Commander Saddam Haftar met Russia's defence ministry in Moscow, signalling continued external alignment. In a counter-current, rival forces participated jointly in the US-led Flintlock 2026 exercise in Sirte. The UN Security Council ended the EU naval mission Irini's mandate, removing a maritime monitoring instrument; the High State Council rejected the UN-backed "4+4" election committee. Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia reiterated calls for accelerated elections.

Syria — 38.1 AMBER, Δ -1.8. Syrian Army units participated in Türkiye's EFES 2026 exercises for the first time since December 2024; Damascus is reportedly seeking closer ties with the G7, NATO and WHO, and the US Special Envoy met President al-Sharaa in Damascus. The SDF integration agreement has entered implementation. A car bomb near a Ministry of Defence building in central Damascus killed one soldier and wounded 23 civilians; Israeli forces conducted multiple ground incursions into southern Syria. Fuel-price hikes drove public anger and February inflation reached 6.5% month-on-month; the Syrian Parliament remains unformed.

Egypt — 32.0 AMBER, Δ +0.3. President Sisi participated in a joint call with the US President and regional leaders on the Gaza ceasefire; Foreign Minister Abdelatty pressed for implementation while rejecting any external military role in Red Sea security. The US State Department maintained its "Exercise Increased Caution" advisory citing terrorism, crime and health concerns. The government froze fuel prices through the end of the 2026 fiscal year and the Central Bank held interest rates at 19% for a second consecutive meeting, revising inflation and GDP forecasts.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 61.6 AMBER, Δ -0.6. Parliament convened for the first time in five years and appointed former commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing as President, consolidating military control. The military launched renewed offensives in Kachin and Chin States and recaptured two strategic border towns near India and Thailand, with reported civilian casualties in Oatpho Township; the regime is responsible for over 70% of attacks on healthcare facilities since the 2021 coup. Trade unions sought outside assistance to protect workers from military conscription. ASEAN's foreign ministers proposed dialogue and an end to violence; the regime's peace overtures were publicly dismissed as a PR exercise by ethnic armed organisations. The regime is reportedly pressuring media over reports of Chinese border encroachment.

Bangladesh — 48.0 AMBER, Δ -0.4. The United States and United Kingdom maintained elevated travel advisories citing ongoing post-election violence. The interim government extended the armed forces' judicial powers by two months; attempts to rebrand the Rapid Action Battalion reportedly failed. A UN-backed report placed Bangladesh on its global food-insecurity risk list, citing 15.6 million people affected. The Bangladesh Bank signalled a move toward market-led dollar pricing and ruled out near-term intervention, pointing to further inflationary pressure and currency volatility.

Philippines — 46.0 AMBER, Δ +0.2. The Justice Chief's order to enforce an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Senator Ronald Dela Rosa coincided with reported gunfire in the Senate and the senator's whereabouts becoming unknown. The Senate convened as an impeachment court for Vice-President Sara Duterte. The National Grid Corporation issued red alerts for Luzon and Visayas on insufficient supply, and a hotel under construction collapsed in Angeles City, trapping around 40 people. The peso hit a new record low against the dollar and the central bank is considering off-cycle rate hikes against surging inflation.

Pakistan — 44.7 AMBER, Δ +1.1. A suicide bombing of a passenger train in Quetta, Balochistan, killed at least 23 people and wounded over 70 (BLA claim); an IED in Wana and an attack on a security compound in Bajaur followed. Prime Minister Sharif announced Islamabad would host the next round of US-Iran talks; 15 accords were signed with China during his visit. Inflation is projected to reach a two-year high of 11.0-12.2% in May, driven by food prices.

Nepal — 39.2 AMBER, Δ +0.6. The United States lowered its travel advisory to Level 2 citing improved stability. A significant cabinet reshuffle was approved by President Paudel; the Supreme Court issued an interim order preventing the arrest of former Prime Minister Deuba and his spouse. Unemployment has risen to 12.6%, the trade deficit widened by nearly 15% in the first ten months of the fiscal year, and inflation rose to 4.47% in mid-April. The Nepal Rastra Bank held key rates. Opposition parties continued to disrupt parliament.

Indonesia — 39.1 AMBER, Δ +1.7. The rupiah closed at a record Rp17,640/USD, prompting Bank Indonesia to hike its benchmark rate by 50bp to 5.25%. President Prabowo announced new regulations mandating state control over key commodity exports including palm oil and coal via a state-owned enterprise. Papuan rebels reportedly killed eight gold miners in Yahukimo. Amnesty International reported coordinated disinformation campaigns targeting government critics. The government also unveiled an $80bn "Giant Sea Wall" plan for Java's north coast.

Taiwan — 32.9 AMBER, Δ -3.3 (largest 24h improvement). Taiwan's National Security Council reported the deployment of over 100 Chinese naval and coast guard vessels across regional waters, including a second "joint combat readiness patrol" within a week and a coast-guard standoff near the Pratas islands. Taiwan deployed new rockets and the Defence Minister outlined the need for additional missile and artillery systems. The Trump administration signalled willingness to speak directly with President Lai Ching-te, a notable departure from decades of US diplomatic protocol, alongside an in-progress $14bn arms package. AMD announced a $10bn AI investment and Taiwan briefly became the world's fifth-largest stock market on AI demand.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 52.1 AMBER, Δ +0.7. A US military drill over Caracas was authorised by the interim government as an evacuation exercise; some sources described it as the first US military activity over the capital since the capture of former President Maduro. Opposition leader María Corina Machado announced her intention to run for president and plans to return to Venezuela before the end of 2026; her party signalled the country's transition would begin with an electoral calendar. Over 500 political detainees have been released and Alex Saab has been deported to the US. The National Assembly is reportedly drafting legislation to allow private investment in the state-controlled power sector, and US and Venezuelan officials are discussing a three-phase electrical-grid rebuild.

Guyana — 36.9 AMBER, Δ +1.4. US Navy and Guyana Defence Force joint exercises featuring USS Nimitz followed a shooting on the disputed Cuyuni River border that injured a Guyanese soldier; Georgetown formally requested Venezuelan investigation. President Ali called for national support for the Joint Services and announced new border-security assets; ten AK-47 assault rifles were recovered in a separate incident. Excavator damage to Guyana Power and Light transmission lines has caused widespread blackouts across Demerara; phase two of the Gas-to-Energy project has been announced for future demand. A UNDP report flagged the highest brain drain in South America.

Europe

Ukraine — 47.1 AMBER, Δ -0.4. Russia launched massive missile and drone attacks across Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa, with some using the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile; multiple civilian casualties were reported. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission registered April 2026 as the highest civilian casualty toll in Ukraine since July 2025. The Ministry of Defence reported a sharp increase in Russian chemical-munition use along the front lines. Russia framed the strikes as retaliation for Ukrainian strikes, including one on a dormitory in occupied Luhansk that reportedly killed 18-21 people; Ukrainian deep strikes also hit oil terminals and industrial facilities in European Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry threatened strikes on "decision-making centres" in Kyiv.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 41.4 AMBER, Δ +0.4. Republika Srpska President Karan met President Putin in Moscow, with OHR closure and RS's constitutional position on the agenda; High Representative Christian Schmidt warned the UN Security Council of disintegration risks and criticised perceived EU passivity. A US State Department report declared the "era of nation-building" in the Western Balkans over. EU officials warned BiH risks losing close to €480m in aid due to reform delays, with €108.5m already lost from the EU Growth Plan. BiH announced the deployment of 64 Armed Forces members to a Gaza peacekeeping mission. S&P affirmed a B+ rating with a negative outlook for the Federation.

Moldova — 35.3 AMBER, Δ -0.7. President Sandu and Prime Minister Munteanu issued strong warnings over Russian troops in Transnistria and new Russian legislation permitting military intervention abroad; PM Munteanu publicly suggested a recent Russian decree simplifying Transnistrian citizenship is a recruitment tactic. The US National Guard Chief visited to reinforce defence partnerships; joint exercises continued with Romania, and the National Army's General Staff was renamed Defence Staff. The National Bank raised its inflation forecast and April annual inflation reached 6.8%; the IMF projects 8.1% inflation for 2026. The leu depreciated against the euro and fuel prices increased.

Georgia — 32.4 AMBER, Δ +1.6. The European External Action Service formally raised concern over Georgia's worsening political situation and democratic backsliding. Opposition groups and civic activists planned a major Independence Day rally in Tbilisi on 26 May despite official rejection; Tbilisi International Airport was evacuated on reports of suspected explosive devices. Policy experts at Hudson Institute alleged that Georgia is transforming into an "Iranian client state" under Georgian Dream; PM Kobakhidze said Georgia seeks "a different kind of European Union". The multinational special operations forces exercise "Trojan Footprint 2026" continued. Tbilisi plans 7.5bn GEL in transport infrastructure investment by 2032; Fitch raised its 2026 growth forecast to 6.5%.